Wtf? Nate Silver now has Navada, Florida, AND North Carolina going to Clinton again.... Is this game over?

Wtf? Nate Silver now has Navada, Florida, AND North Carolina going to Clinton again.... Is this game over?

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realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/me2/maine_cd2_trump_vs_clinton-5897.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html
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Yeah, its over.

You lost long time ago drumpfkins, you just weren't aware of that.

Were post polls now user.

The election is in gods hands now, not nate bronze.

>giving a flying fuck about what Nate Bismuth hast to say

I certainly hope it is over. Fuck this has been a nightmare.

> Ever believing nate faeces

Ya nates gig is up

>nate silver

SO INSECUUUUUUUUUUUUUURREEEEE

Nope. It ain't over till it's over.

Florida will not go blue.

I guarantee it.

...

CTR faggots are in full force today. Like their job depends on it... (BECAUSE IT DOES)

Put sage in options when replying to their threads.

Fuck Nate Silver. He said Trump had no chance in hell to win the primaries.

(((Nate Silver)))

Yes this will be completely game over for his career

Even if Clinton wins Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida, Trump can still win.

Can't wait for the sea of butthurt from Sup Forums on Nov 9th

REMINDER TO GO VOTE TRUMP!

yeah i mean he could also win if the dems take texas and he talk california...

Surveymonkey's wacky polls seem to be the reason Hillary gains an unnecessary lead

In any case nate will be wrong, anyone could figure out who will win based on early voting compared to 2012

Shouldn't you be in brit/pol/ whining about how Brexit happened?

...

>Surveymonkey's wacky polls

They were the ones who gave Hillary a +14 lead a few weeks ago. Even the MSNBC hosts said it was bullshit.

inquisitr.com/3589166/morning-joe-scarborough-claims-nbc-cooked-poll-to-help-hillary-video/

I don't think Survey Monkey's polls affected things that much. They're given a C- on 538. If you look at the chances of winning before and after the recent Survey Monkey polls, Clinton's chances only go up about 1.5 points.

he's still crying about Brexit so he's hoping to watch his other political enemies feel his pain with a Trump loss

they're basically coin flips, he isn't calling it for clinton necessarily

This is good now if we win it'll piss off demoshills that much more

Pics or it didn't happen. Rule 32

INDIANS WIN THE WORLD SERIES

CUBS BTFO

trump is +4 in florida

nate pewter is a fag

>nate_lithium_the_literaral_increasingly_nervous_man_trump_has_two_percent_chance_of_winning_primaries.jpeg

damn, it's fun to meme and all, but it's really over. a damn shame really. im not even going to bother voting tomorrow. waste of time. gonna play vidya instead

brexit is happening trump presidency is not

>Nate Silver now has Navada, Florida, AND North Carolina going to Clinton again

Nate doesn't use a gray color in his palette for some reason.

Those states are within the margin of error in the polls.

Capped

But early voting heavily favors Clinton in all three states.

early voting always favors the democrat.

trump winning by a landslide among likely election day voters

Trump is going to get fucking clobbered. Thank god. I dont want a liberal ruining conservatives by proxy.

>trump winning by a landslide among likely election day voters

If your source on that is Bill Mitchel I hate to break it to you but he's making that ABC poll up.

>Nate Silver

You don't seem to understand the concept of probability

Just because Hillary has a 1% greater chance of winning those states, does not mean he says it's going to her. It's basically a coin toss.

Look at the numbers on top instead. Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of becoming president according to this model. He could still win but a Hillary presidency is more likely

>WI, MI, PA
>red
?????????????????????????

>WI red
>ME red
>PA red
>MI red
...

Nate Silver is a moron. Ignore this idiot.

Just go and vote tomorrow and Trump will win.

If you stay at home. Yes he will lose.

That's how democracy works folks.

What is the point in making a prediction that you change moment to moment up until the election?

What was the point of making all those earlier predictions if you're just gonna throw them out tomorrow? Those aren't predictions.

If Im watching a basketball game and I predict the home team is gonna win, then change my prediction when they are down by 10 at half time, then change it back when they are up 15 in the 4th quarter with 2 min to go nobody would consider me some kinda genius.

A 52% is not 'having a state for Clinton'. It's a coin toss with small movements due to natural variance.

Doesn't even need Florida, but he will win it anyway.

...

The second congressional district of Maine is basically guaranteed to go red.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/me2/maine_cd2_trump_vs_clinton-5897.html

The last few polls in Pennsylvania are within the margin of error sometimes +2 for Clinton, sometimes completely tied. Black turnout is down which is gonna matter a lot for a state like this, especially in Philly.

Michigan is a state with a lot of blue collar voters who almost all behind Trump, and the polls in the primaries were totally off. They anticipated a +20 win for Hillary, but Bernie won it by 1 or 2 points.

if trump loses, lord and savior KEK will send you directly TO HELL by doing a wrong prediction

desu he doesn't make proper predictions

he just compiles the current data that exists and tells you what's likeliest right now

however I think his stance for hte long term is that Clinton wins

Idi popij malo rakije da se opametis

Reminder that the polls oversample Republicans.

>let me just flip these states that are polling D+5 red and trump wins the election

how in the fuck is he supposed to get Pennsylvania and Michigan

Are you forgetting about Pittsburgh and Detroit?

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html

>Random +11 Clinton poll out of nowhere, just enough to flip the average to Clinton
>Thinking liberals aren't trying to distort reality to affect turnout

>But early voting heavily favors Clinton in all three states.
Early "votes are never counted or disclosed untill the final polling places close on the West Coast.. They are counting the Ballots recieved not the votes.. And the reason there are Ballots to count is because of TRUMP, not Hillary.

Nate is wrong. Check digits

So here's a quick run down of Trumps chances.

They're pretty fucking great, before he only had one clear shot at 270 and now he has multiple.

Early Voting shows him at an advantage EVERYWHERE apart from Nevada.

Let's break the states down

Original swing states that are no guaranteed for Trump:

>Ohio
>Iowa

The main states everyone talks about:

>Florida = Trump overperforming and Hillary underperforming. Obama only won Florida because of his 250,000 early lead among early voters, Clinton doesn't have anywhere near to that. For reference, Obama only won Florida by 0.9%. Florida is likely to go Trump
>North Carolina = Lock for Trump. Clinton is underperforming significantly compared to Obama and Trump is performing right around what Romney was at. For reference, Romney won North Carolina.

If Trump loses either, it's kinda over. But thankfully, it doesn't look like he will

The recent headline state:

>Nevada = The only real takeaways are that both Democrats and Republicans are overperforming from 2012 by about the same percentage but the REAL story is the huge surge of Independent votes and Hispanic votes. The former benefits Trump and the latter benefits Clinton. No real way to call this state, guess we'll have to wait and see. I think consistent polling has shown Trump ahead and given the huge gap between Trump and Clinton within indies and this state could still, go for Trump. It's not even close to over like recent concern shills have claimed.

Keep in mind, if Trump loses Nevada but picks up Colorado/Michigan (and)or Pennsylvania, he still wins.

Now, the other states Trump likely needs to win

>New Hampshire
>Maine 2nd

TL;DR It's a tight race, no denying it. All the meme electoral collages with 300 Clinton or Trump are delusional imo. If Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Michigan or Colorado, it's over. If Trump loses NC or Florida, it's over. If both of them win their must-win states then it will come down to Nevada/New Hampshire and Maine 2nd district.

thanks for proving that polls are bullshit and don't mean anything

Nate's map is actually my map. I have democrats having an outside chance of winning arizona.

While Trump does flame out and he cries, the senate will be 50-50, while the house stays R. Thus pretty much letting Hillary do nothing. Good outcome.

Hopefully Rubio runs in 2020 and Republicans can attract minorities instead of telling them they are rapists or saying you have nothing to lose.

>I have democrats having an outside chance of winning arizona.
well you're an idiot then

Arizona is like a 24/7/365 machine guns and jeeps show. it's republican as fuck.

it will due to rigging

FUCK NATE SILVER

E-E-EVERYONE KNOWS STYX IS WAY BETTER AT POLITICAL ANALYSIS AND HE SAID CLINTON IS D-D-DONE!

based serbia

Benis.

t. Cuckservative