ITT: POST FUNDAMENTED PREDICTIONS

ITT we post fundamented predictions so we can claim bragging rights or so we can be mocked and shamed when the results come.

Here is my main take on the whole electoral college thing:

> Simple Tier: Romney states + OH + FL + IA + ME CD2 + NV + NH (270)

> Alternate Simple Tier: Romney states + OH + FL + IA + ME CD2 + CO (269)

> Black turnout down Tier: Romney states + OH + FL + IA + ME CD2 + PA (280)

> Working class revolt tier: Romney states + OH + FL + IA + ME CD2 + WI (270)

> Working class revolt alternate tier: Romney states + OH + FL + IA + ME CD2 + MI (270)

There are so many scenarios as long as the following states are secure (and right now they are):

> Romney states
> OH
> FL
> IA
> ME CD2

Pic related is my base map and I could easily have made VA toss up but, as I said, PA always flips before VA so it doesn't affect the count.

As for the early voting:

> NC: better than Romney (that won the state)
> FL: Hillary doing worse than Obama, that won the state by 78k votes while having a 250k early votes advantage. Hillary early vote advantage is under 100k (exaggerating in her favour)

For good measure

> NV: Hillary is doing worse than Obama and it will all be decided by independents. According to the latest CNN poll Trump leads them 56:28 but even a smaller lead could flip the state.

Black turnout is down across the board, being more noticeable in NC and FL. Considering Hispanic are really a minority (for instance, 8% of Nevada early vote according to CNN/Catalist) this election will be decided mostly by independent white people.

Other urls found in this thread:

drudgereport.com/flashnc.htm
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html
denverpost.com/2016/11/07/purple-state-memo-republicans-hold-lead-in-early-voting-entering-election-day/
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

Nate Silver is always right

>> Working class revolt tier: Romney states + OH + FL + IA + ME CD2 + WI (270)

I think this is close to tomorrows results. You're the most articulate fag around Trump Gen Portu-bro. Thanks for being a stand up guy and a true friend of the United States

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K3K, I give unto you power to tread on serpents and scorpions, and over all the power of the enemy: and nothing shall by any means hurt you.

K3K I ask you to channel your power through our emperor.

NY Hillary fag here:

Trump: IA, OH, FL, NC, NH, ME-2
Hillary: MI, WI, VA, NV, CO, PA

Hillary wins 274-264

see you tomorrow night

This is mine. I'm a staunch Trump supporter, but I don't see how he can win this when the polls show him this much behind.

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It's the brexit all polls are wrong meme in effect.

save this

His model still predicted the Trump victory lel

FL is blue bro

I think this too

RATE MY MAP PLZ

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>MI
>red
shit/10

>California
>red

Besides this, good prediction.

Don't believe betting odds skewed by FX markets.
Don't believe polls "adjusted" to match odds.

This is mathematically the best that Clinton could do.

Trump, without a revolutionary act of taking a solidly blue state, has a peak of 270-268.

>YFW this happens
>Democrats take House
>Democrats take Senate
>Democrats take Supreme Court

This election settles the next 30-40 years of where our government will be going. This is the most important election since FDR and Hoover.

COME ON PEOPLE

Post the reasoning for your predictions. If you guys want the bragging rights don't just post, explain your choices too.

god please

this would be glorious

>NZ is this irrelevant even the arctics are more important

Totals would be nice.

States that will be close:

Closest states:
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Ohio

"Surprisingly" close states:
Michigan
Arizona
Georgia

North Carolina won't be close at all.

drudgereport.com/flashnc.htm

CAN YOU FEEL IT?!?!?

How will he win Maine but lose New Hampshire?

RATE

Oh yeah, explanations.

1) "Secret Trump" vote does not exist
2) Hispanic vote is surging, and has been under-accounted for in polling models.
3) Black turnout will also be high. Not '08 high, but around--or even possibly ahead--of '12
4) Female GOP switching
5) MIllennials have been undercounted by polls, but don't look like they'll show up in force

Result: It's not a close election, but Donald Trump can't take losing, loses his mind, calls everything rigged and overall puts on a very sad face as a loser.

Large numbers of followers glom on to "rigged" narrative. The overall theory is preposterous (voting & vote counting in the US far too distributed/diverse to successfully rig everything) but taken in the whole, across the entire US, there are enough isolated data points that a conspiratorial narrative can take hold ("Results in this one precinct in Pennsylvania look weird" "Exit polls don't match results in this county" etc.) (On the whole, exit polls will be likely to over-predict Clinton, because exit poll sample sizes tend to skew younger and more liberal).

Alex Jones latches onto "rigged." Matt Drudge latches onto it. The Russian botnet fires it up because it's looking to undermine the US example of democracy & its goal is to increase cynicism all around.

GOP leadership becomes caught up in the fight. It is pressured by both sides, ultimately finding the phoniest, weakest-spined "compromise" position, which is that the election results are clean, but the media was rigging the system the whole time and that there really should be more voter ID in the future as well as other barriers to polling. It's not enough--a large faction of people in Trumpland decide that the GOP has been in on the fix the whole time and, led by Breitbart/Drudge/400 lb losers goes to war against the GOP.

>Post the reasoning for your predictions.

Deltas from conventional wisdom:

1. My hunch from day one has been that Trump has a lock blue collar "Reagan Democrats". This means the Rust Belt is his to lose.

2. Hillary on the other hand has a huge enthusiasm problem with blacks and hispanics. She reminds them of every white bitch boss they ever had.

3. The election betting markets systematically understate Trump's probability of winning. (Due to the asymmetry of upside/downside in MXN.)

4. Pollsters and pundits like Nate Silver "adjust" their poll weightings to align their results with betting markets. (Silver's "secret sauce".)

Taken together, the result should overwhelm Trump's negatives with college educated women. I think Trump could get one or more of MN, WI or VA in addition to this map.

this. this is it.

>Cubs
>Michigan
>Alaska
>UK 2015 election
I can go all day.

Got trips in the other thread,
Kek has blessed my prediction

Based lazy nogs. Voter apathy in the black community is going to win Trump that state

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>drudgereport

intothetrash.jpg

Prove me wrong

You can't

This is my prediction too.

What are the polling results with indies in Colorado?

I think that is what's going to be the winning factor for trump. I genuinely think Colorado is closer than Nevada

Will Hillary supporters blame black people for her loss?

It's the establishment stupid.
Berners realize DNC is corrupt.
independents always believed major parties are corrupt, and favor anti-establishment candidates.
Trump is an outsider.
Trump leads with independents,
and Dems are defecting to Trump more than reps are defecting to Clinton.
This is how Trump is winning NV, and tendency is same in other battleground states.

where do i go to make my prediction?

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This is the most accurate mpa I think. It's gonna be a nail-biter tomorrow folks.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

270towin.com

How does this election work, is tomorrow simply a national holiday and that's when most people will get out and vote? + everybodys votes so far will be counted, the voting process will stop and the winner will be chosen and on to the electoral college to finalise it by the end of january. correct?

If you're right I'll suck you off

Also: check my digits

check out this great map

this one is also pretty great

I'm in Georgia (outside of Atlanta) and I promise you we are staying solid RED. We've got strict Voter ID, so it's too hard for the Dems to cheat. If they can't cheat, they can't win.

>DC
>RED
Nice try CTR.

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Aside from The World Series

>explain

trump wave

>red Cal
>red NY
>red Mass
>red Wash
You've already proven yourself wrong 4 times. I don't have to do anything but sit back and chuckle.

I'm from the future. Screenshot this. Vermont will write in Bernie

I was just about to post the same map, except with NH red and WI blue. I truly believe it comes down to PA, MI, CO and NV to decide the election.

penis man

desu for me this seems the most likely

I've been to Michigan and Trump's support in the state is massive, even in black areas Hillary seems to be just barely keeping afloat. if she can't guarantee the total majority of the black/minority vote there, but instead loses even 20/30% to Trump then she's lost the state.

that combined with apathy of white middle class types vs angry disenfranchised people who despise Hillary and want jobs back in America.

Trump's biggest support is in the Rust belt and I think that will be where he will make his biggest gains

I can even see him winning Pennsylvania but losing Florida

Now what?

it goes back to congress and they chose the president

in that case it would be Trump with the democrat's Kaine as his VP

Prove me wrong. all of these states are within the margin of error.

this is the best I can see Trump realisticly doing

prove me wrong

>poortugal

Why the fuck do you care about our politics? fuck off nigger.

SCREENCAP THIS

trumps already lost nevada

Early Voting is giving Trump the advantage in Colorado. It's pouring rain in Detroit tomorrow, will niggers wait in line?

Here's my final prediction.

american politics affect the rest of the world. this is literally the biggest election in the world.

and the best I can realistically see Clinton doing, though Ohio I think is a stretch

Trump up in Colorado early voting.

it's over for Hillary. it's just a matter of by how much.

really? because according to RCP he is winning. realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

there is only one true result

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Damn, you have a huge variation in your predictions

>NH, FL, CO
>red

yeah no.

Colorado is red, you can't follow Early Vote? But you can shitpost garbage?

He doesn't even need PA senpai. Other than that, that's the map I'm guessing on.

PA and MI will stay blue
All romney states will stay red + OH, Iowa, Florida, NH, Maine CD2.

This takes Trump to 264. There is a number of ways to proceed from here.

Colorado will probably stay blue, but it will be very close. Same with Nevada.

I think Trump will pull of a surprise in Virginia. Black turnout is way down there, and so is enthusiasm in NoVa.

>Black vote down 20%
>Democrats turnout down substantially
>Republicans and Independents up big
>Hispanics split down the middle
>Millenials don't like Clinton
>Trump inspires people. Hillary doesn't
>Hillary had one of the lowest primaries in her party recent history
>Hillary pushing for WWIII
>Trump has the Monster votes BIG time

This map might come true at this rate

>virginia
>blue

Let's be realistic here.

Dems and Reps are tied in early vote so far in Colorado. Trump is winning 5 points in voters who are voting election day. There's a chance it goes red, a bigger chance than anyone thinks.

FL has a good chance to go red based on recent polling.

I'm just posting extremes
people are posting nearly full red/blue maps which seems silly

really it will come down to one or two states and its a complete tossup now

it could be a situation like this where Hillary just scrapes by in Florida while also hanging on to PA and still wins

Anyone who says blue FL at this point is a fucking retard

They are accounting for Voter Fraud.

CO: rep's are ahead in ballots turned in: denverpost.com/2016/11/07/purple-state-memo-republicans-hold-lead-in-early-voting-entering-election-day/

FL: RCP puts trump ahead realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

NH: one poll is clearly an outlier, all others have trump winning or ahead realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html

its a possibility people should be aware of
it could end up like this where Florida decides the election

I realize that you think of us as dumb white niggers and we think of you as dumb fat niggers, USA. But know that in this case Poland supports you.

May our beloved Lord Kek let the best man win this election!

the voter fraud has already occured and trump is still 130k votes ahead of romney. obama only won florida by 60k votes.

yeah that seems about right. The only thing I would change is MI is a tossup. It's pouring rain in Detroit and Ann Arbor tomorrow, the Dem strongholds of the state.

Don't forget. Cubans in Florida are mostly conservatives and the hate illegal Mexicans

THEY WILL VOTE TRUMP

>red Michigan
>blue Florida
Swap the two around and it's both the most likely scenario and a good Trump victory. With a red Florida Trump can manage to lose in either NV or CO.

Be here faggot. Bring tears.

Pretty much same map as everyone else.

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Trump +1

NH is going red.