How were the polls so OUTRAGEOUSLY wrong?

It's not just Nate Silver, it seemed like every poll was saying that Trump was heading for a monumental loss. What the fuck happened? Is their methodology just plain bullshit?

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were living in that 1 in a million scenario, the polls were good

Pretty hilarious, all of it.

Liberals accused Trump supporters of living in an echo chamber. The irony is palpable.

Silver is based, he was the only one giving Trump a chance. He even said the polls in places like Michigan and Wisconsin sucked which made for a lot of chaos and uncertainty that his model tried to reflect.

So now that the dust has settled, do jews really control America?

Methodology was fucked because they assumed that this election was going to be like any other election.

Mostly, they entirely avoided the Trump rallies and refused to investigate how the rallies would effect turnout.

Best guess? Undersampling of rural town communities, overestimation of Democratic turnout in urban areas, taking the Rust Belt for granted, and people not telling pollsters their true stance.

They thought this election was like every other election. Establishment D versus establishment R.

Instead, it was Establishment vs America.

America wins.

Lots of undecided voters, almost all of whom apparently went for Trump. Creating a culture where people are afraid to voice support for a candidate due to social consequences opens the possibility of a surprising upset like this.

This, Sup Forums shits on the guy who was most optimistic for Trump.

Because no one wants to admit they voted for Trump.

NO
silly antisemite

Several major polls I read were waaaay off in their sampling. I mean: I saw sampling of 40% Dems and 23% Independents in some major MSM polls. I looked at their tables. Bad sampling gives you bad results.

A few folks were calling this out, incl Cernovich and esp Bill Mitchell.

The polls were rigged.
By making it seem like Trump had no chance to win they attempted to discourage his supporters from even trying.
>LOOK GUYS TRUMP DID SOMETHING BAD
>THESE POLLS SAY HE'S DROPPING IN POPULARITY, PEOPLE ARE ABANDONING HIM (MAYBE YOU SHOULD TO)

Didn't work this time though.
MSM are fighting their WW1. Their strategies are old and war has changed.

In my theory when the society actively tries to silence the opposition, the silent majority tends not to show up on the polls.

i personally think a ton of people lied to the polls because of Trumps bad reputation. they didn't want to admit it.

This timeline is best timeline

It's what bill mitchell talked about. No one uses phone lines anymore, and some people just don't answer

Well you're not laughing anymore.

People in middle America and people who really don't give a shit about politics but liked trump wouldn't participate in polls, so all of the results were skewed

>Trusting liberal new media and other liberal organizations to be non-biased
No matter how much they claim to be non-biased they are always liberal.

this, i took statistics at university and saw these flaws

"Statisticians use statistics the way a drunk man uses a lamppost, for support rather than illumination." ~Andrew Lang

>still thinks polls are a tool to predict the results of elections, not influence them

Meme magic
Berenstain timeline

rural hicks kept quiet and cast their votes in silence

No one had bothered pandering to them before

But a pollster won't judge you for saying Trump. It's not like you'll ever see them in real life. So why would they be afraid to say "yes Im voting Trump" over the phone to a random polling guy?

Normies afraid to admit their support of Trump because they'd be strung up by the liberal media and care about what ppl think in exit polls

durrr maybe the liberal media lied. like all the republicans have been saying a million times this whole time.

>I don't really like Clinton
>YOU FUCKING RACIST SEXIST SCUM
>I-I am just saying she isn't that gre-
>GO FUCKING DIE YOU CIS SCUM

Yep. That is totally going to encourage them to vote for Hillary and not push them away at all.

The polls were probably people with internet connections, which most people have access to.

But the actual voting process itself needed people to be fully registered and physically go to a voting area.

Which most people could not do.

>hey lets do a poll to get a feel for how this state will vote in the election!
>there's 25 million people in that state, we can't possibly ask all of them
>i know, we'll call 850 random people in the capital city and ask them who they're voting for and that will give us a good idea, right?

They only want to hear things that make them feel good, so they manufacture a reality around themselves where they only hear such things.

Liberalism is literally a mental illness.

pollsters are fucking hacks

The Los Angeles Times USC poll for it right again. The other polls over sampled registered Democratic voters because the cancer man, Podesta, told his medua shills to do so. It's in the leaks. "Polls are not to predict, polls are to guide."

someone made some nice fucking money last night. i mean, if i had the bug i would have put $100 on the outside chance.

quite simple. people who share the same views with a racist bigot aren't going to admit who they voted for.

Nate Silver's model was still closer to reality than all the others relatively speaking. NYT and HuffPost models was just an absolute joke by comparison; they were literally pulling numbers out of their asses.

>97480287
I'm curious about the percentage of black voters who voted for Trump. It was a lot fucking higher than 2-4% I can tell you that much.

POST ALL IMAGES OF INACCURATE PREDICTIONS IN THIS THREAD


BOTH TRUMP AND BREXIT

WE MUST PREPARE FOR UPCOMING MEME WARS

so much this, same thing last 2 Swedish elections with the Sweden Democrats, silent majority.

Black men were like 20% for Trump.

To be fair, this guy was constantly adjusting his model post-primaries to reflect how absurd of an election this was. That 28.6% chance is a hell of a lot more than almost anybody else gave him, and he was pretty consistent of the LA Times' methodology which was giving Trump leads.

Polling in general is going to learn a lot from this election. Namely, that liberals were extremely noisy in the data and conservatives have a tendency to keep their mouths shut and just vote. Dems got over-represented, reps got undersampled. Plain and simple.

WAKEY WAKEY SJWS

traditional polls are by phone, and you can register to vote online, dipshit. there's also the mail-in ballot.

liberals underestimated their opponent. I underestimed him. today is a strange day to say the least. a day of history... or infamy.

yes, they will. they did. EVERYONE did.

It's called the "shy tory" vote over here, and it's a very real phenomenon.

It's why labour sank like a rock at our last GE and brexit happened, but the polls failed to indicate either.

Hidden Trump voters totally existed in the Midwest. I'm one of them.

You don't even have to say you support Trump. If you even concern troll against Hillary, people automatically assume you're a racist sexist xenophobe.

The sampling was frequently wrong. Pollsters were weighting Democrats at >38%, which is off from 2012, and doesn't reflect lower black turnout.

They were also weighting Independents below 20% in many polls, when they were 29% of 2012 voters. They were 31% in 2016 according to exit polls.
cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

stop being a dumbfuck and notice those 70% correspond to chances of winning, not vote percentage, outside of Nate S other models gave 99% do Clint

*consistent in his defense of the LA Times' methodology

Because when the media calls one candidate Hitler people are less likely to admit they're voting for him on the phone?

They assumed Hillary would get the Obama and Bern voters to come out. She didn't. How the fuck do you lose Michigan as a Dem? Straight up incompetence

Hillary supporter: yes I love hillary!

Trump supporter: man, fuck your poll!!

Because the pollster isn't the only one listening to your call.

Biased pollsters that forgot that for every single poll they were oversampling Democrats in the double digits.

Do you understand what an exit poll is? People are asked after they cast their vote who they voted for. The media never had a real time account of actual votes cast.

JUST

>it seemed like every poll was saying that Trump was heading for a monumental loss
You retards don't know how to read polls

It didn't mean that Trump was going to get 28% of the EC, it meant that there was a 72% chance that he would get 270 votes or less.

The election hinged on MI, WI and PA, 3 districts that are traditionally blue. And FL which is very hard to predict.

There is no conspiracy. You're just being a reactionary doofus.

>he fell for "humans are rational" meme

Because most republicans don't have time to stand around and answer the polls. We have jobs and careers and better shit to do with our time.

I'll venture a guess. Correct me if I'm wrong with the logic.

Firstly, show Trump is losing massively. Discourage his voters from registering.
Second, At the drop of every controversial tape or statement have his rating drop significantly so that they can regurgitate the polls + tape to spread discouragement
Third, Cover above stories with media and celebrity backing. This is the lowest point.
Fourth, as the actual vote date starts getting closer, increase Trump's chances again. Hint to democratic voters that Trump still has a chance so that they go out and vote.
Fifth, nearing election day: Pose trump as a threat to all ideals and values of majority and instill fear in them. Slight increase in polls yet again.
Finally, Lose the elections cause they got too complacent in victory conditions and record turnouts still showed up for Trump.

They were trying to ostracize and shame us into supporting her like all the other gullible fools. It was a calculated effort to rig the polls, to inflate her standing.

That's because all Democrats Pokémon Go! To the Polls

It will also change the Democrats' playbook.

Expect incursions into unorthodox areas.

Under reporting, misreporting, not accounting for the people who don't even bother with this shit, overconfidence, you name it.

Nate did nothing wrong. He stood up to the liberal media and did his damn best to unskew the polls to give an accurate depiction of the race. While the liberals shat all over him for not giving Hillary a >99% chance of winning, he stuck to his numbers and refused to be partisan.

He doesn't come out of this smelling like roses, but he did better than literally every other poll aggregator and prognosticator.

I imagine a large amount of Trump voters were too ashamed to say that they were going to vote for him when Gallup called.

looks like clinton was playing x-com

Don't forget THEY OVERSAMPLED DEMOCRATS!

Trump needed either
>Virginia,
>Colorado, or
>New Hampshire, Nevada, and Maine 2nd District
according to polling. That's in addition to Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa.

Trump was leading in Florida, Ohio, NC, and Iowa, but not Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, or Virginia. Any small misstep would've set him up for a loss.

The polling was totally wrong in the Rust Belt. Nobody predicted Pennsylvania, Michigan, and especially not Wisconsin. It was a massive fuckup for the pollsters in those states.

For a real answer, it's because they were using 2012 models and grossly oversampling democrats.
They acted like Hillary was Obama when she isn't.

Propaganda that backfired on the establishment. It had the opposite effect what they attended. Had a lot of Dems get over confident and decided to not vote and Repubs vote like it was there last chance.

Considering Nate Silver did no original polling, if they were all wrong he was going to be wrong.

I understand what he does and don't want to simplify it as just "editing" ... but it mostly is. That's what was missing in his elevation as Saint Silver. He could only analyze data others provided, but when 95% of the data was in error, he went ahead and determined that the 5% which was actually accurate was in error.

100 turned into 530 dollars because i bet when he was at 19 percent odds.

Two things
>kek, rural whites won't come out
>kek, white union members and blue-collar workers will continue to support the Dems

I love this.

Sup Forums embraces Nate Silver.

they were trying to make Trump supports feel that they stand no chance and to just not even bother voting, I noticed CTR making shitloads of threads yesterday saying "Don't even bother voting its rigged!!", ect.

The white union and blue collar workers one is the most delusional shit. Liberals are notorious for not understanding that other people might have different opinions. But to miss 8 years of them being fed up with Obama fucking them over? God that was purposeful blindness.

Any indication of voter turnout yet?

Couldn't an unexpected low turnout have something to do with the results as well?

People lie in polls because voting Trump gets you insults but in the anonimity of the voting ballot they are free to expose theyr true intentions

I work in media. 30 years ago most reporters were themselves from working class background. Now their parents are all prestige professionals -- doctors, university professors, financial advisors. They have no connection to anything like a "blue collar" class and are somewhat discomfited when they come face to face with it, like they did at Trump rallies.

Blue collars workers that got absolutely analed by globalism voted.

I get it

> Is their methodology just plain bullshit?

It's not complete bullshit, but it is squishy enough that wildly incorrect misconceptions can sneak in and warp the underlying reality

Jeez I wonder

>Look at these peasants
>Can't believe I have to do a piece on them
>"Sir what do you do here"
>"I pull apart chicken and separate it into pieces"
>"Yeah but what else?"
>"That's it. 5 days a week 10 hour days."
>Poor losers have to take any work they can get
>So disgusting. How can they just do the same thing all day long
>"Amazing money though. Dirty work but its a honest days work. Hell I probably make more then you suit boy"
>REEEEEEEEEEEE FUCKING LOSERS

>By making it seem like Trump had no chance to win they attempted to discourage his supporters from even trying.
And it worked in some cases. I know one faggot who literally didn't go to vote because he bought into the "the whole things rigged anyway, they'll never let Trump win"

People are fucking retards, so they make these obviously fake polls to convince a few that the vote would just be a waste

Nate Silver is such a retard. Near the end of the elections he started raising Trump's odds from 9% all the way to 35%. If he just kept it there he could have talked his way out of this by pointing out that his algorithm noticed an upward trend.

But no, that idiot had to start slashing Donald's odds again. Fuck Nate Plastic.

it was white college educated males voting for trump that threw the polls off

Maybe now the liberal lefty media - and the social media - will realise how out of touch they are and what an empty echo box they've been spouting their opinions into.

At first I was like....

Nope. (((They))) will always have final say over what is reported. The media will feign being unbiased like always.

JUST

They also act like fucking elitists who assume that the working class people are fucking retards.
>Every single time they go to a Trump rally and talk to his supports
>"Are you aware the KKK supports Trump?"
>Get BTFO when people tell you they are fucking sick of this being brought up, because it doesn't reflect on him at all
That video with the black guy ripping the CNN reporter a new asshole while he says "I-I'm just doing my job" was hilarious. Especially how he walked away when people grouped up and started asking him if he knew the black panthers supported obama

But Nate was the only pro-trumper out there

Ironic criticism, considering how insular right-wing media is.

It's solely because rigging was a complete intention and roger stone winning the supreme court appeal days before election that allowed official observer exit polls blew their plans out of the water.

The only thing they could do at that point was ballot stuffing, which they did in Boward but it became too apparent and they shut it down as news coverage began.

Simply put, observation only allowed for so much rigging before time lapse brought attention to it. Had DNC gotten their way, florida, pennslyvania and michigan had stayed blue.
Thank Roger Stone for taking it up before we had the general election.

Allan Lichtman has got every election since 1980 and doubled down on trump after the tapes came out.

He correctly suspected the polls were converging too conveniently at the end, and didn't buy that "magic".

So he tried to adjust for the possibility Trump had more support than commonly assumed by pollsters.

Basically, Trump had just under the same R turnout as previous years, but Hillary is indeed no Obama and the D turnout was massively lower than before.

Honestly, I like make fun of Nate Silver as much as the next guy, but he was actually reasonable.
A 3/10 chance to win was probably pretty close to reality.

Have been seeing the same shit en Europe for the past years. Our "nationalist" party, SD, crushed all polls. Pretty sure this is the case for other countries nationalist parties as well. Brexit did the same.

I think people just don't want to admit that they are voting for the option that the media tells them is wrong. Bradly effect, shy Tories, or whatever you want to call it.

It's insane how fucking far off they were this whole time. Like, literally, we're listening to the people like weathermen before radar.

I knew Michigan was a lock for Trump.

It's amazing to think that despite Bernie beating Hillary there in the primaries after being 10+ down on average in the polls people still thought that they could trust the traditional polling methods.

Trump had a message that resonated with the rust belt. Anyone with any understanding of the working class would've realised that Hillary's globalist image would be kryptonite to her campaign in those areas.

honest mistake, go-...guy.