So what's going to happen when this $400M worldwide?

Attached: 1520885112883.jpg (468x468, 53K)

Other urls found in this thread:

web.archive.org/web/20080712210347/http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i28e0d4f7991010727c5ef800dea6ce69
vulture.com/2016/07/paul-feig-ghostbusters-reboot-c-v-r.html
web.archive.org/web/20160326225715/http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Marvel_Enterprises_(MVL)/Filing/10-K/2009/F5338252
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

dc execs collect bonus again

2 Billion World Wide!

Wouldn't that be a profit? That's the result MCU phase 1 used to get with similar budgets

nothing because it'll never get that high

with Bumblebee, Into the Spiderverse, Alita, Mary Poppins Returns, and Holmes and Watson it'll be lucky to get $175 million

>Into the Spiderverse
Will this even be any good?

Honest answer? Not much, because WB can't stop making these movies and hoping to eventually strike gold. The DC cinematic lisenses are one of the few they can use to churn out movie after movie as their bread and butter. To let the properties sit idle would be a massive waste.

They can keep making movies until they get it right or sell on the rights. It's a simple as that.

Does anyone honestly believe they are just going to say 'fuck it' or that it's a realistic expectation? It's really not, at least not until they start making Ghostbusters or Universal Monster tier flops.

Attached: 1518987881323.jpg (800x1199, 166K)

It's Aquaman. That'd be exceeding everyone's expectations.

It's impossible for even the worst capeshit this day to gross below $500 million.

Have you seen that trailer? It's already better than this

No.
Made up numbers;
400M worldwide
200M domestic, 40% is the theaters cut, leaves 120M
200M overseas, 60% or more is the theaters cut, leaves 80M
The movie made 200M to cover a 150M Budget and at least 100M in marketing.

PS; this exercise is all wrong and the numbers are even more severe than this.

This

Attached: harry-potter-wizarding-world-shared-universe-logo-1092802-1280x0.jpg (1280x704, 75K)

>Miles
>better than anything
Also we haven't even got a trailer for Aquaman yet so how would you know?

>The DC cinematic lisenses are one of the few they can use to churn out movie after movie as their bread and butter.
Why can't they be lower-budgeted movies though?

Because we already got the entire plot and yes that trailer was miles better than anything that could be cut from this into a trailer

don't forget it's sony as well

Was there a thread earliewr where OP asked everyone to pitch how they would save the DCEU?

We didn't got aquaman plot retard, was a shitposter

Except it matches what we already know from the test screening

I expect around $450-550 million. Whether that'll be a pass or a fail really depends on the budget. We know, for instance, that the duology of Iron Man 1 and Hulk were considered successful by Marvel, as even though Hulk would've bombed normally it was said to have done enough in combination with Iron Man to be considered a success:
web.archive.org/web/20080712210347/http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i28e0d4f7991010727c5ef800dea6ce69
These two films had a collective budget of $290 million, and a collective gross of $849 million. This is equivalent to about x3 the budget. This melds pretty well with a statement I remember Paul Feig making about how a $154 million movie he was making had to make at least $500 million to be considered a success (keep in mind it was meant to be the start of a CU, so they were probably expecting more than the minimum barometer for success).
vulture.com/2016/07/paul-feig-ghostbusters-reboot-c-v-r.html
X-Men Apocalypse also grossed $544 million on a budget of $178 million, and that was considered enough of a success to get a sequel and positive comments in Fox's earning reports.

So, around x3 the budget seems to be the minimum point where something crosses the line as a success, in modern parlance (it was probably less 10-20 years ago given the plethora of films that grossed only x2 budget yet still got tons of sequels). If Aquaman has a sane $140-150 million budget in the vein of Wonder Woman, it can succeed even at $500 million. Not great, but not bad. However, if they went crazy with budgets like the Snyder trilogy, they're setting themselves up for a loss.

It actually contradict because it was comfirmed aquaman would use less cgi than all previous DCEU movies while his fanction claimed Aquaman would have even more CGI than ther rest of DCEU

>It's already better than this
It's meh

It depend heavily on critics reception, if it gets a rotten it will make less than 500

If gets a mediocre fresh it will be over 500

A score like WW would lead to over 600million, maybe even 700

you wish

no this isn't Black Panther

this is the movie ripping off Black Panther

MCU right now cann make a howard duck movie and it wouldn't bomb. DCEU at least drags people with names. Super hero movies will outlive us.

They probably can and will, within reason, largely if they start doing the more street-level heroes. The issues with heroes like Shazam is they are billed as 'Gods amongst men' and need a budget fitting that.

I don't expect Nightwing will be massively expensive to make, or Suicide Squad 2 (outside bringing back Will Smith), or even Wonder Woman 2 since it will likely be another historically set movie.

Honestly a Batman movie loyal to the comics wouldn't need more than 100 million budget

This is exactly what people said last year:

>Captain Underpants will kill WW.
>The Mummy will kill WW.
>Cars 3 will kill WW.
>Transformers will kill WW.
>Apes will kill WW.
>Valerian will kill WW.

To be fair Wonder Woman is way bigger than Aquaman

But yeah compared to what wonder woman faced(transformers,Pirates and Spiderman) Aquaman will have an extremely easy time, wonder woman faced 3 movies with potential to each 1 billion while all aquaman competitors are on 300/400 million range

>this is the movie ripping off Black Panther
>Aquaman 1941
>Black Panther 1966
???

This is a reasonable post

More bonuses for Warner

In this case it will be Dc BTFO to kingdom come though

ww is dogshit user

they already lost $100M with JUST league

you can save the DCEU by stop making movies altogether

We're talking about box office not your contrarian opinion about a movie that 90% of the critic and audience claim to be good while you shitpost behing anonymity

WW cornered half the market by default. Aquaman doesn't have that same built-in audience.

I know it seems crazy than anything could've killed WW, but Justice League couldn't even beat Dr Strange. The DCEU was such a dumpster fire that it seemed possible for WW to fall on it's face as well.

Even if they would reach a high peak for DC, which is the same as the lowest grossing for Marvel, the public and critics would just reject everything related to this movie.

Warner probably already planning on losing the originals film recordings or some lame excuse, it will be cancelled.

>DCEU at least drags people with names
>DCEU at least drags people
>drags people
>people
people is exactly what's missing

yeah, still distilled shit
only jew apologists would try to convince you otherwise

people shitpost about how it didn't make a billion dollars

This excuse don't work when the general audience approves as well unlike ghost busters, the last jedi and black panther where a huge part of the audience hated it

All you got is your contrarian, anonymous opinion witch is worth less than shit because there is not even reason to believe you're being honest

You mean after the first week?

GA can suck my ballsack user, ww jewess is objectively a piece of shit

Then counter with "IT WAS SUPPOSE TO FLOP"!

I doubt it'll do well, but could you imagine? If the most successful superheroes in the past two years were Black Panther, Wonder Woman, and Aquaman? That would be so weird.

Alita isn't a threat. Everything else on this list is valid. December is a really tight month this year and I don't think Aquaman will be the only movie to suffer as a result.

>black panther where a huge part of the audience hated it
That's true for Nubusters and TLJ but audiences tended to like Black Panther. Even the hate it receives here is no where near on the level of the other two you listed.

web.archive.org/web/20160326225715/http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Marvel_Enterprises_(MVL)/Filing/10-K/2009/F5338252

>Our consolidated net sales of $676.2 million for 2008 were $190.4 million higher than net sales in 2007. The increase primarily reflects the $254.6 million increase in Film Production net sales related to the theatrical releases during 2008 of Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk. This increase was partially offset by a 15% decline in licensing net sales and, within All Other, a decline in sales due to our exit from toy manufacturing operations.

Attached: marvel 2008.jpg (729x435, 99K)

Realistically nobody will ever care about wonder woman user, the opposite could be said about Black Panther though.

I genuinely think it's going to do better than that. People were generally pretty positive towards character in JL. I think the only properties that are really poisoned in the DCEU are Superman, Batman, and Justice League. People loved Wonder Woman. I think they only really need to overhaul those three and just focus on making good movies for the rest of them.

I honestly hope it does well, the last couple of years have been pretty kind to the character in the comics and if the movie is successful we may get a cartoon or a game based on those.

>realistically
You mean the movie that got $800 mil, and was the only DCEU movie that most people liked instead of receiving a polarizing reception? Because realistically, people did care about her.

>snyder
>whedon
>dc
>jl

>pretty positive

Yeah... ww it's just trash user, pure unadulterated trash.

Not really. Just because you say it's trash doesn't mean it is.

It is though, for real.

Source?

Good taste

Kek, no.

Kek, yeah.

At no point have you explained how Wonder Woman is not a popular superhero.

Getting real now: It will barely make 350M because Disney will murder it with at least 3 consecutive movies.
Dc is done, they should sell already before it becomes even more embarrasing.

You do this for free.

Disney won't even give them the chance they already did it with J.League and Coco.

That's just how the dice has rolled user there was never any hope to begin with.

since they had a psuedo death of Superman bs thing why not go full 90s?
Kyle is the Green Lantern, full JLA with Plastic Man and everything

I think the key to the DCEU winning is by propping up it's villains and legacy characters early. Marvel's had maybe 2-3 good villains not counting the anti-heroes/reformed villains like Nebula, Bucky, and Loki. And even when you do count them it's still a pretty pitiful number.

You already wasted your biggest villain on Leto, how can that be fixed?

By cleaning him up and having a throw away line about the tattoos and grill being fake.

It's the Joker. They can just swap another actor in and massively change his appearance and plebs will eat it up.

or just give us good movies based on beloved characters

>plebs will eat it up
not this time


And the 10 years of flashbacks with Harley were fake too, right?

>It's Superman!
>It's Batman!
>It's Flash!
LMAO

Any movie that doesn't do AT LEAST a billion is an automatic flop.

the problem it's also the critical reception and people loathing them

At this point they should make Galdot the lead of assemblies and cameo the rest

We're talking about a movie with a man whose sole superpower is TALKING TO FISH.

You can give him badass looking armor. You can give him long hair and a beard. You can give him a grim and gritty attitude. You can make him chug whiskey like it was water. But in the end, he's still a guy who

TALKS.

TO.

FISH.

Nothing is going to change that. His power is a JOKE and he's the laughing stock of DC. The closest he ever came to being cool was in the Cartoon Network ads where he dances in supermarkets and fast food drive thrus.

This movie is gonna tank, HARD. If Green Lanter couldn't hack it, there's no way Talks-to-Fish-Man will.

At least 2 sex scenes with Mera.
Guaranteed 700M

Casualfag Aquaman has a lot of powers. He controls water, he doesn't talk to fish he has mind control powers that can extend to humans if he focuses hard enough, is bulletproof, is as strong as Wonder Woman, can breath underwater, enhanced reflexes and speed due due to water pressure too.

Attached: NamorandAquaman3.jpg (490x765, 122K)

They struck gold with Wonder Woman. That's the reason they will keep making these films. Apart from JL they all made profit

>he doesn't talk to fish

Lol. Yes he does.

>namor >>> aquacuck
everytime

>Negrospider
>low fps rate
>better

>One movie ripping off another
>No, but the comic!

Autists at it again.

Attached: 12043121_101286980227296_4114238027269295864_n.jpg (600x600, 50K)

>not including the Popcorn Guild's cut
You gotta subtract another 75mil from that total, my man. Don't even get me started on the Usher's Union.

>le talks to fish maymay
He's a magic king of the ocean. There's a lot going on there. Characters are more than just their Superfriends incarnations.

>We're talking about a movie with a man whose sole superpower is TALKING TO FISH.
>Nothing is going to change that. His power is a JOKE and he's the laughing stock of DC

Superfriends cartoon ended shortly before CoIE in 1986,that's 32 years ago.

He talked to fish THEN.

He talks to fish NOW.

Aquaman still cheated.

Jason Mamoa is not The Rock.
He's not The Rock's understudy.
He's not even the nearest Mexican equivalent to The Rock.

The Rock made a shitty Hercules movie and it still pulled 2.5 times it's budget.
Mamoa made a shitty Conan movie and it made HALF it's production budget worldwide.

Audiences do not give a fuck about Jason Mamoa.

Attached: conan-2011.jpg (550x366, 74K)

This is WB not Sony

Doing numbers like this is dumb. You're wasting your time. Because you don't know how much they are saving with tax credits and write offs. So the budgets you actually have can be alot less. Depending on the places they shoot, and the taxes they are filing.

>Justice League couldn't even beat Dr Strange
>state of marvel drones, everybody

>Namor crushed by a 4 ton whale
So fucking retarded. Aquaman winning is fine but find a coherent way to make it happen. Or have it off panel like Wolvie vs Lobo.

possibly

at the moment we're dealing with budget estimates but the crucial thing even on the $160m estimate would be hitting a comfortable profit

part of the problem is that no two movies are ever the same on costs; so $400m might have to be used to pay off more in the way of advertising (and there's nothing you can do about that - other than move your release date to what should be a cheaper time of year, but even then it's not particularly predictable)

then again you might have to pay a star gross points in lieu of a big fee up front, so that means they get more overall (from a movie that's not expected to do incredibly well, but isn't expected to tank) and you of course get less

and naturally $400m was OK in 2008/2011; though the lowest gross of Phase 1, Captain America, was probably never going to be allowed to fail unless it did Hulk levels of shit, and made around $410m in 2018bux, which is therefore probably the lowest Aquaman (which has a budget estimate about $5m higher than Cap1) can afford to do; with the exception of Incredible Hulk (a mere $300m today) and Cap, the next worst was Thor - on what would in 2018 be $500m

and then they had a big, highly anticipated crossover in 2012 that was hyped by every previous movie, but Aquaman has to deal with being dragged down by poorly-received crossover movies instead

If he couldn't resurrect Conan there is no way he can do something with Aquaman

actually you can know that simply by knowing where they're shooting and what the tax regimes of those places are

typically tax breaks in any territory are on a first-come, first-served basis, up to a hard annual limit of remuneration, and a per-project limit as well; and you have to actively reclaim your spent cost, it's not a discount, so there's a predictable administrative cost associated which you can calculate if you know the companies involved (and you can sometimes find certain states are resistant to repaying the money)

they're not huge - you'll never get whole-cost back, and you'll be lucky to get 50% of taxes in any US state (and not all taxes, just those specified) and they're often reliant on you having shot *all* of your movie there, or at least your exteriors (which are advertising the state)

That's debatable with BvS

the Rock didn't either.