50% hit chance

>50% hit chance
>miss twice

Other urls found in this thread:

grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm
thatgeoguy.ca/blog/2014/10/04/two-birds-and-a-liars-game/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

*33%

No it's 50% there are only two things that could be behind each door.

>75% hit chance
>miss 5 times in a row

>95% hit chance
>miss four times

Fucking Fallout I swear

>100% hit chance
>miss

there could be anything behind the door
the chance is 0%

There is only a 33% chance that you will get the car since there are two goats.

That's XCOM, baby

Sectoids_laughing.pdf

All of you are completely fucking retarded.

The doors are clearly marked. You obviously pick the door of the thing you want, be it a goat or a car.

Jesus christ.

Three things:
1 Goat n.1
2 Goat n.2
3 ABTOMOБИИИИИЛЬ

where is your god now?

Focus blast

28% hit chance
Miss and it's critical failure so you automatically lose the next round.
AND THE WINNER IS... BY MEANS OF KNOCK OUT

>get 25% crit chance
>get 25% hit chance
>every hit is a crit

>It hurt itself in its confusion

Check this 5 added from these 3 numbers.

>1 in 100 crit chance
>crits are always perfectly timed

Instead of there being two goats behind doors imagine there are 99 goats behind 99 doors.

I failed math and basic understanding of everything class

He's right, though.

>crit and hit chance rolls are independent
rolling crit but failing to hit still makes you crit

What are the chances of getting 7 in my post?

It's a trick. All the doors lead to a bottomless pit.

No you idiots. I'm assuming that the person is told that behind each door there is a goat or a car. Which means when you pick a door with only that information there is 50% chance that what you pick is a car.

To the people who don't understand this problem:

You are supposed to pick an unmarked door, then the host removes a door with a goat and asks you if you want to switch to the other door you didn't pick.

The answer is that it's always best to switch since the host will never remove the car, your first choice gives you a 33% chance of getting the car but the second one gives you 50% since there are only two doors left.

Simple as that, this problem confused me for a while since no one is good as explaining it and try to make it sound more complex than it is.

>50%

You have a 66% chance of picking a goat in the first round, so switching actually gives you a 66% success rate.

Yeah I got the percentages wrong but the answer is still the same.

it's either a goat or a car

Go take care of your mothers corpse, Oikura

Google search "Monty Hall problem"

how cute, baby found new bait material.

These threads are fun. How about this situation, HOWEVER, you are Phoenix Wright with Maya by your side. How does this play out then?

Kill the bird, Maya channels its spirit and you can ask as many questions as you want

>casted

What if I want the bottomless pit? Than it's 100%.

Just use a simple XOR statement for god slayer.

>open door
>if it's heaven go in
>if it's hell go in the other door
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOW that was hard
>b-but
There's no buts faggot, it doesn't say you get sucked in the door once it's opened i win.

>as soon as you open a door you are stuck with it

what is it that you fail to understand about that?

>as soon as you open a door you're stuck with it
you da real DSP

So?
I just have to remove the door and take it with me.
Are you dumb?

>Maya: "Hey Nick, what if you kill one of those birds so I can channel it for you?"
>Wright: "Y-You want me to what?!"
>Maya: "Come on, I know you can do it!"
>Wright: "Maya, I'm not killing any parrots!"
>Maya: "Aw, you're no fun Nick... Alright, time to try my Samurai Smash!"
>Wright: "M-Maya! Wait! Even if you channel it it won't mean you'd know everything it kn-"
>Too late
>Maya is convicted of animal abuse

...

>98.1% of hitting
>Miss

Your sentence

> the second one gives you 50% since there are only two doors left.

shows that you do not at all understand why you should always switch.

By switching, you are simply betting that your first guess was wrong, which is more likely.

It came out a year ago, you can have it any day you want

>Most votes
>Implying you can lose a democratic election if you have the most votes

Apparently you can.

then it isn't democratic

this isn't votes. this is an approximation of what the media thought will happen.

>play chess
>lose
>"but... but I captured more of your pieces!"

>goat
can fuck
>car
cannot fuck

66%, it's on my side

But Trump did get the most electoral votes.

>>car
>cannot fuck

You haven't tried hard enough.

Switch between the goats and cars to make it more intuitive to bainlets.

You may not understand it, but this is how reality works.

grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

>that filemame
>not HillaryPlaysXcom.jpg

user, you had ONE job

>using a game based on monarchy to defend a "democratic" system

The whole point of chess is that some pieces are worth way more than others. That's not a democratic system. It makes a few kings and many pawns.

>American elections
>Democratic
top kek
The whole reason Trump won was to show that the US isn't democratic, to further undermine the United States role in global affairs.

Why would we be assuming that?
All we have to go on is information to the contrary

maybe if we take it to extremes, you'll understand
>country has 5 states, 4 with 10m citizen each, 1 with 100m
>tell the 1 state with 100m you will make the other states completely miserable in favor of them
>win because 100m>40m
or
>lose because 4 states>1
That's basically the idea behind america's system

Congratulations on finally figuring out you live in a representative democracy, not a direct democracy.

>Not looking in the keyhole

Which when combined with mmp would be a good system.
See what if party A that appealed to the 100m states was to implement policy that would inhibit agriculture.
But all agriculture is done in those 4 10m states?
It would be in the best interest of the whole country to accept that whilst population density is a thing, most densely populated states are urban and so may not contribute to the actual import/export industries.

I understand the idea behind the system, but the system itself doesn't make sense. It values small states over big states arbitrarily. It doesn't make sense that a Texan is worth less than a Vermonter.

But it isn't representative. If it were representative, every state would send a proportional amount of representatives, not winner take all.

Sorry forgot to say that party B would support agriculture but not appeal to the social issues of the dense states.
Meaning that for the less dense states, B is the better option, and oddly enough, if they wanna eat, it also is for the 100m too.

Ah yup.
Should be broken down into economic value of states, if you really wanna get serious.
But nobody likes to put a dollar value on people.

autoeroticism

>90% to hit
>miss
>plan two, 85% to hit
>miss
>plan three, 60% to hit with a shotgun at pointblank
>miss
>opponents turn
>run thru two people on overwatch whom miss
>aims at dude in full cover
>he hits,crits, and kills my dude

Technically, if you have a 99% of hitting something, it will be possible for you to never hit it in your life time no matter how much you hit it. It's not a guarantee that you'll hit it, it just means there's a bigger chance of hitting it.

HAH took a sec

SUMMON THE ELECTOR COUNTS

the best part is that this system holds too much manipulative/political potential so it will never be changed, ever.

thats the power of true rng baby

>not just asking any bird which door the other bird would say leads out

>implying i'm a good person and deserve heaven

xcom is so fucking shit its amazing
>complete game on easy because i hate rng
>fuck it i have nothing better to do, try another playthrough on normal
>first mission
>put everyone i possibly can in full cover, everyone i can't is flanking
>throw grenade in group of 4 enemys
>no one dies
>65%
>miss
>repeat until end turn
>enemy shoots at guy in full cover
>crit
>enemy patrol moves in and flankes me by random chance
>"are you sure you want to uninstall xcom"
fuck that game

i never even got past normal mode. can i get a cheat sheet?

This.
I had the same argument with a mate about life outside of earth, and multiverses.
He was like but bro, infinity therefore it has to be out there.
But does it?
See if there are 100 things and 99 of them are A, 1 is B, sure 99% chance.
But once you make that pool of possibilities infinite, you could be sitting on the 1% chance to not have life or not have X multiverse where you are a jelly bean or whatever, for an infinite time, waiting to tick over into the chances where there is that thing, but never quite getting there cos more negative examples keep being generated.

Ask one bird: "If I asked the other bird where Hell is, what would he say?"
Both would point to Heaven.

ask one bird what would the other bird say leads to heaven.

Ask one of them which door the other bird would tell me to go through if I wanted to go to Heaven, then walk through the opposite door once they answer. They're guaranteed to point at the Hell door no matter what.

ask a random bird which door they'll go through when they die
good bird will tell the truth and say he'll go through the heaven door, bad bird will lie and also say he'll go through the heaven door

thatgeoguy.ca/blog/2014/10/04/two-birds-and-a-liars-game/

>not even god mode answers

What's the point if the easier solution gets you into Heaven anyway?

nothing personnel, god.

Learn how probability works, pls

If I asked a bird that had the opposite truth-telling idiosyncrasy as you where Hell was, what would he say?

Both birds know which door goes to heaven and both would want to go through that when they die, so the honest bird will show you heavens door while the one that lies will send you to hell.
If the remove the fact that they have a choice in the matter you will be creating a hypothetical scenario and miss out on god slayer mode

to get god mode you literally only have to say "if there was a bird here that always tells the truth" in front of the answer

ARE YOU A GENESTEALER

their wants is different from the judgement which is what was asked

but what if after you make your decision, the host eliminates a goat door that you didn't select? should you switch?

>99.9% hit chance
>miss 10000 times

>1000 door selection
>999 goat doors
>1 car door
>50% chance to pick a car
thanks obama

xcom thread?

I ask a bird if traps are gay.
Checkmate