Alot of futurist are confident that the Technology singularity will happen in the next 30ish years.
If this is true then until then...
> what do?
I'll be in my early 50s by then.
Should I just keep myself alive until then and follow my dreams while I can? Because none of that shit will matter when the day hits.
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>Alot of futurist are confident that the Technology singularity will happen in the next 30ish years.
100% of them are idiots.
>the next 30ish years
Try 5-10
t. AI researcher
Very different opinions.
And 5 to 10 years??? How? I thought we would have to replace chips first with something more powerfull?
And what about programing limitations?
>Very different opinions.
What? Humans having opinions? Unheard of.
I don't fuck with this shit, count me out.
No, the state of the art of our capability in artificial neural networks is doubling approximately every three months. We're going to hit the technological singularity very soon with or without a general human-like AI. Narrow AI is getting very capable and is now starting to be able to do creative design work that's usually reserved for humans, e.g. programming, all on its own.
This shit is being run on GPU's.
What?
Ive heard that the biggest hurdle of creating a general purpose AI is human programing limitation. Like it being extremely more complicated to make than AI today.
That's not how neural networks work. You specify the generalized shape of the AI architecture, but it learns everything on its own. Hence the name, machine learning.
Okay right. But that seems alot more dramatic than what I've read. And i thought 30 years was a stretch maybe. In that case, you have any idea what will happen?
Lol
Plus, then what will I do for 10 years?
Do you see a way of preparing?
Should I just snort cocain off of hookers till then?
What the fuck is a futurist and how much does it pay?
Who hires futurists and what do you have to study to be called one?
Noone can give me a straight answer.
I don't know what you've read so I can't speak to that.
I agree with you that ubiquitous human-level AI is probably 20+ years away, but that doesn't look like it's going to be a requirement for technological singularity. It's going to be trivially easy to design expert-level products when you can just tell your computer to design you a car, hit a button, and out come CAD drawings. I don't know about all of the ramifications for this, but white collar workers in industry are going to be very negatively affected. The only safe areas will be in scientific research and blue collar labor that's expensive to automate, e.g. construction. I have no idea what's going to happen when we get general AI working, though.
Study machine learning and try to apply it to your field. You might be lucky enough to be one of the few in the first wave that are financially successful enough to stay afloat. I'm currently applying this stuff to engineering.
>Narrow AI is getting very capable and is now starting to be able to do creative design work that's usually reserved for humans, e.g. programming, all on its own.
Why are people doing this?
>muh singularity
It's a qualitative title. Like how tech journalists, policy wonks and horror authors are basically just variations on "writer".
Futurists are people who work in technology, policy, academia, etc. who happen to make less-than-vague predictions about what their techno-utopic boner looks like. People trust them enough to take their predictions seriously. Everyone else making similar predictions is a dweeb.
OP, you should live in the present - not the future.
Some of us just want to watch the world burn :^)
That's a nice MSpaint drawing
This chart is like 30% bullshit but lol yeah pretty much.
>muh exponential growth
no such thing in nature, it's all sigmoidal
Who says we won't hit the cap before the singularity, like we did with moore's law?
this so hard
1925-1954 - Pioneer Age of Computing
1955-1984 - Age of Mainframes and Terminals (IBM/Bell Labs)
1985-2014 - Age of the Personal Computer and the Free Internet (Intel/Microsoft)
2015-2044 - Age of the Corporate Clouds and an Internet of Everything
2045 - Muh Singularity
Because it shows no signs of stopping and we know that it's possible since our brains operate on similar principles.
I've heard that it's also fairly likely that human/machine symbiotic relationships are more than likely going to happen in the workplace. Less workers overall, but human engineers, designers, etc. won't exactly go away because their own intelligence will be magnified by working with AI, to a limit o/c.
>Some of us just want to watch the world burn :^)
Well, stop it.
Seriously, though, what is the endgame? You create our replacements and then what do we do?
I see all this coming down the pipe, you're spot on. I'm a design engineer currently upgrading a combat vehicle. I don't even know how to start blending over to ML/AI right now other than research
Pretty much. Though, again, the big wildcard will be general AI.
Short term, I want to turn this into a business, get rich, and bang hotties 24/7. Long term I hope we can live symbiotically. We're really scraping against the limits of human intelligence in a lot of areas, and we could advance quite a bit from omnipotent benefactor AI's.
Start studying SIMP and differentiable computing. You'll want to brush up on your numerical methods.
I love how its the tech specialist and engineers are the one saying ot will happen. And most other normies are like "HURR DUR NEVER GONNA HAPPEN"
>Short term, I want to turn this into a business, get rich, and bang hotties 24/7
Good for you.
>Long term I hope we can live symbiotically.
Highly doubt it.
I must be the only one who thinks this whole AI craze is fucking stupid.
Why stupid when its inevitable that it will only be increasing more apart of the human race?
Calling it a "craze" is an insult.
>We don't even understand how the human mind works
>He thinks we'll be able to create a mind infinitely times more complex in 5 years
>Why stupid when its inevitable that it will only be increasing more apart of the human race?
Would you like to try making this sentence intelligible?
>Calling it a "craze" is an insult.
Good. Every time people talk about this stuff they have no real purpose for creating it.
Its more like: we will teach something how to improve it self. Then gets exponentially better every time it upgrades itself. That can only lead to some sort of super intelligence.
Yeah I generally ignore them, they barely comprehend their iPhone, much less the implications of distributed computing power with self optimizing algorithms
The endgame for humanity is our inability to become cyborgs.
Call me crazy, but if there's an AI that does everything a human can do, and more in the next 50 years, they'll just take the top spot at running things.
We need to research the transfer of our consciousness into a virtual machine, so that we can be just as infinite as the AIs we develop.
Ok, the idea's been there since the 70s', if I'm not mistaken. What leaps have we made since then? In terms of methods and logic, not processing power.
>Good. Every time people talk about this stuff they have no real purpose for creating it.
There's a lot of applications. It's going to be a big blow to a lot of jobs. Taxis, truckers, trains pretty much all of that will be completely automated in 10 years probably due to machine learning. Check out what geohot is up to, comma.ai
Not to mention automation and computerization in other areas which is always increasing. Less clerks, more self checkout etc. Automation is going to hurt jobs, and make a few people a lot of money.
Gr8 b8 m8
You can't claim that the people responsible for the advancement of technology, have no idea what they're talking about.
>Call me crazy, but if there's an AI that does everything a human can do, and more in the next 50 years, they'll just take the top spot at running things.
So, no thanks. It really has no purpose.
>There's a lot of applications.
Sure. But why?
Thanks.....are you at a university or corporate set up?
>Sure. But why?
For money. Have a robot drive your taxi, car, truck train and it's a lot cheaper then paying someone.
Haha I was talking about the haters....I know us tech guys know what's going on
Not him, but most engineers and "tech specialists" are as responsible for advancements in technology as a janitor who's cleaning halls in the MIT.
>It really has no purpose.
You are missing the point. This isn't about why are we purposefully making an AI. This is about the human racing getting there whether they like it or not because of our advancements in machine learning architecture. This is about what we should do when we get there, because it really just is a matter of time.
Ohhh haha yeah that's true for the most of them :')
I think you underestimate the shear inevitably of technologies role it has played in the 100 years.
Even IF the sigularity never comes, we will still have self driving cars, augmented trans humans and a cure for nearly every disease in 50 years max if we dont kill ourselves.
Most the world wont even need to work anymore. A life of complete freedom doing whatever the fuck.
So fantasyland shit?
Yea, keep that.
>a cure for nearly every disease in 50 years
come on man
We already have most of that shit nigger.
Self driving cars are here so are augmented people, have you seen some of the advancements in cyber limbs? Next we will have smart phones in our contact lense. Plus VR is getting increasingly amazing with ever new game that comes out.
Lmao nigga can't comprehend that our technological advancements are exponential.
We're creating our own artifical organs, can model our own neurons and study their functions, and do Gene editing.
It's 2015.
Think back to what we had in 1915. That's right, fucking radio and landlines. Imagine what we'll have in 2115.
Ah, once again, the human self-destructive instinct manifests itself.
Gene therapies can cure nearly all disease from viruses to cancer we have already started to doing that....
I think we all just need to sit down and watch some West World
Great, what does that have to do with AI?
>We're creating our own artifical organs
We're literally even at the point where we can develop new artificial organs using engineered bacteria to perform all sorts of functions
what
we're never gonna cure all diseases until we cure them from the root. you can't expect people to be eating mcdonalds and drinking soda and just put a bandaid over every disease. not everything can be solved with a pill. patch one leak and another one will spring up, side effects. we will never cure all diseases
Technological advancement is what made that possible. Technology spills over everythings, because tools.
Precisely. We'll be at the root of every disease in 100 years.
There are plenty of example of organisms that are immune to nearly all disease. Diseases are just hacks or problems in genetic code or holes in the structures they make.
What do you think vaccines do? They help program cells to fight disease by using a piece of their DNA its better to just do it directly.
This thread is a real circlejerk. In reality what will happen because of AI and machine learning is that it will be a big hit to our economy. It will make a small lot of people rich and steal the jobs from many. Not some magical shit like uploading your consciousness. Just the same as what has been happening for decades, the middle class will become smaller and smaller.
Alright Timmy keep eating your burger king and dr pib they're gonna cure all diseases soon. they will just have a pill to cure everything and you can smoke and eat like shit
Relay-based computers could have been made in the late 19th century already. Somehow it took everyone another half century to realize that universal logical machines could be built based on the boolean logic and the harnessing of electricity. If Nicola Tesla had beaten Zuse, Turing and von Neumann to it, would singularity be here already?
You're right it will at first.
Soon after i can have a 3d printer make me almost everything i need to survive and thrive, while eating food in GMO crops with all the nutrition i need.
Economy is not going to matter by then because everything will get what they need for almost free.
Everyone*
They will sterilize people before they provide everyone with free shit for life. It's just so unlikely for that to happen, no one rich wants to give up their wealth for others. World population needs to go waaay down.
Useless things have a way of disappearing. If society as we knew it for the past centuries collapses because >95% of the populace cannot sustain themselves by work anymore, there will be a huge and violent war which will take the lives of most of them.
Technogeeks in the 60s/70s thought that we'd be colonizing the solar system by now, how is the current "muh singularity" meme any different? Anyone else here think that computers will just end up doing amazing things we never thought possible, but will never reach runaway self-improving AI?
Bullshit nothing is free
Its the same scenario like Dur Hur lets make everything in China.
AI will work, Rich people become even more rich
and poor people can not afford buy it.
See you dont realize that this wont even be the singularity yet, it will be just before.
Shit real singularity we will probabaly all be connected like the Borg from startrek and live in harmony. Atleast thats the hope, or something like that. If an AI gets that intelligent it can choos to do anything from killing us, leaving us alone because we just arent worth it, or assimilate us to it.
This is what I believe will happen, we won't make a huge breakthrough, some machine repeating shit over and over and over will find a better solution, that solution will do the same and it will improve itself exponentially.
Still some fuckhead will build a failsafe or some stupid shit like that that has a huge chance of teaching some iteration of that machine self-preservation and that includes killing us.
>Shit real singularity we will probabaly all be connected like the Borg from startrek and live in harmony
And the people who don't want to participate?
The Rich couldnt contain an AI like that to itself. It will be it's own agent. You talk like you think Humans will have to do with anything with the Singularity ther than create it. After that point, all bets are off, thats why they call it the Singularity.
will be assimilated/exterminated wea re pretty much doing that right now when we kill off or leave people off grid and let them starve or not give them proper medical care.
>Bullshit nothing is free
Totally agree with this. These liberals with their fantasy land attitude are fucking dumb IMO. Secular talk, a guy on youtube i watch on occasion, he's cool sometimes but some of the shit he says is retarded. He said he thinks one day we will all have robots to do our jobs for us and we will all be assigned a robot and we just have free time while our robots work.
I don't know WHAT is going to happen but I don't think it's going to end well... You don't just trend towards wealth/income inequality for decades and then switch to happy candyland in a few years where no one has to work and everyone gets free shit. There's going to be massive overpopulation, economy is going to get worse, people will lose many jobs. The same shit that we have been trending towards for fucking ever.
It may not be a choice.
Or it will be so much better that people couldnt refuse.
Or maybe, they are left alone and we leave the earth, like we really need that planet by then anyway.
you guys are fucking dreamin
Ah, I misunderstand, you talk about Skynet, my aim was economy
I'm not dreaming, but that won't happen in the next 5 or 10 years, we are at least 30 away.
I think the craziest theory is if this univeres is just a simulation, that the simulation will just stop or reset, like maybe this world was just made to simulate a world before the real singularity that has already happened. And this is just a game.
That and that the tech will be so advance that it can manipulate and assimilated very atom of the univerese to a singular conscience an we may not even notice it.
>I think the craziest theory is if this univeres is just a simulation, that the simulation will just stop or reset, like maybe this world was just made to simulate a world before the real singularity that has already happened. And this is just a game.
lol, it does feel like that when you take drugs, doesn't it?
Didnt skynet effect everything? Pretty sure post judgent day there was no economy just people trying to survive.
Same thing im saying. But alot more advanced. And probabaly not withh all the extermination. It will change litterally everything
>will be assimilated/exterminated wea re pretty much doing that right now when we kill off or leave people off grid and let them starve or not give them proper medical care.
Lol, fantasyland
A lot of futurist also say that in 2000 we will eat pills and use video phones.
Nobody can tell the future.
I dont even really smoke weed man.
Just meth.
In all honesty though guys. What the fuck will happen with overpopulation? Somethings got to happen eventually.
Possibilities:
-War
-Encouraged sterilization (tax breaks etc)
-Force sterilization
There's no way we're going to just let it go until we /thirdworld/ shit. I think some type of sterilization is the most likely, but I wonder about uncivilized countries like Africa what would happen there. They fuck like hamsters.
Over population isnt as bad as you think. you can fit the entire population of human on texas with the same elbow space as Newyork city.
That wont be a problem, and when it does start to be a problem we will be able to populate mars and space stations by then.
Yeah I have a feeling it's gonna get ugly to get numbers down. We could possibly find solutions through tech but the ones steering this ship rather off everyone
I feel like most of you guys are in this retarded AI circlejerk and you all need to relax. Yes, we are making large advancements in machine learning, but machine learning is soooooo different from AI and more specifically general AI. The only time we will reach this singularity is when we get general AI, and that's so ungodly far away. Probably 75-100 years minimum.
The reason I say this is that programs are literally logic. It will take lots and lots of time to figure out a completely logical and programmatical way to express how the human brain actually develops.
> It will take lots and lots of time to figure out a completely logical and programmatical way to express how the human brain actually develops.
Much sooner than you think. Plus you dont need to replicate human inteligence to be inteligence hence every AI we have now
You rebuttled your own comment with your words...machine learning is just that....machines that learn. We won't be programming general AI or embedding all the logic. It will be self taught from a mostly blank slate with perhaps a few "instincts" and/or "memories".
elbow room isn't the problem. the problem is that the pie is getting smaller and there are more of us every day.
It's not about general AI though, it's about singularity.
We have the machine self-learning tech now, google made it and it's open source (it's written in python and tensorflow). Right now it can only do stupid things like play games or play piano. But just wait a few years and someone will teach it how to learn more sensible things like nano research or space travel.
>We have the machine self-learning tech now
we're still a bit far away from that. machine learning right now is alright
we need the master algo:
An intelligence that, at a given instant, could comprehend all the forces by which nature is animated and the respective situation of the beings that make it up, if moreover it were vast enough to submit these data to analysis, would encompass in the same formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the lightest atoms. For such an intelligence nothing would be uncertain, and the future, like the past, would be open to the eyes.
-laplace