Another week, another AMD stock rally based on absolutely fucking nothing

Another week, another AMD stock rally based on absolutely fucking nothing.


God I love this crazy stock.
It's a rollercoaster.


Also don't tell me you didn't buy the dip, faggot.

Other urls found in this thread:

wccftech.com/asus-teases-5ghz-overclocks-amds-ryzen-threadripper-cpus/
gitweb.dragonflybsd.org/dragonfly.git/commitdiff/b48dd28447fc8ef62fbc963accd301557fd9ac20
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

Actually from looking around it seems it has something to do with the Tesla rumor, Apple design win and mining.

>Tesla rumor
Sauce

is /d/ prepared for this?
wccftech.com/asus-teases-5ghz-overclocks-amds-ryzen-threadripper-cpus/

Something something about "AMD being considered" I read somewhere, fuck me if I can find it.
Doesn't seem to be anything big.

Old, stupid wccfturd bullshit based on some ASUS marketing slide

If you bought into this at the absolute bottom of that dip and sold now, you'd have less than 14% more than you had before.
If you bought into BTC three months ago, you'd have over 270% more than you had before

>buttcoin bubble
Literally who cares?

>buttcoin
Unlike that you kinda know AMD is going up.

Sooner or later.

It's not going higher than 15 and the odds you lose everything is high


AMD posts 0 profits every quarter and every quarter the stock dips

There is a good reason it's priced that way

>AMD posts 0 profits every quarter
No shit considering their lineup before Zen.

This last quarter included Zen.

>Intel Pajeets are STILL on suicide watch
Kikeripper is really doing a number on you goyim.

About 20 days of it R7 chips, with motherboard shortages.
And their margins when up.

Zen needs to launch for OEMs, mobile and R3's before real numbers of it are in the ER

>implying that intel will let their only competition die

Maybe, but the person who buys that is very limited therefore it's potential capital earnings is low.

They have negative earnings

AMD has to move so much damn product to break the negative earnings and get into the billions where a global company should be, it's unreasonable to believe they will given very strong competition.

Your loss, way better stocks out there with greater growth and nearly no risk

Why are tech company stocks dictated by dumb investors who don't know ANYTHING about the market involved much less the technology involved?

Because it is by manipulating those stocks that the big man makes his dolar.

I find it hard to believe a stock that went up close to 500% over a year, it's very volatile, that makes it good for shorting.
If you know what you're doing it's pretty easy money in the case of both AMD and Nvidia

>nothing
>youtubers bandwagon against intel.

t-thanks linus. (no sarcasm)

Yeah fuck those retards, Intel doesn't deserve the toxic hate it gets

AMD is a weird company, it doesn't actually count shipped or shelved units as revenue, it makes me feel like they're sandbagging, they probably won't count the Apple deal in their Q2 as well going from past experiences.
It makes me feel like they're sandbagging and accumulating to make a single crazy quarter that's like a 50% YoY growth

>intel fucking up with x299
>Apple using vega
>Miners buying GPU's
>Talks of Tesla and AMD
There are a lot of catalysts as to why it's having a rally

inb4 it drops down by 40% because Q2 ER was 'only' 35% over last year

I have a buy order for 1000 @ 12.05
We will see if it commits tomorrow

I won't be surprised if it drops tomorrow, I'll just sell and rebuy the dip

The stock should be really, really volatile until they get in the green, that's either this quarter or Q3, I'm going for this one because that mining boom should be a lot of unexpected revenue and R5 sales look quite good.

Daily reminder that if AMD dies, x86 dies with it. So it's in everyone's best interest that they die ASAP.

Based East Europe knows whats up.
Why do you even need 6/8 cores to run HoMM3, Gothic or STALKER? Weird people.

>had you bought something before it became a huge bubble and sold right before the bubble poped YOU'D BE RICH!
no shit.

So at best, they post a few million profit?

They should be earning billions.

You kids are going to lose your few shekels over a shitty investment. Apple stock is a million times better, will gain more, has good dividend, and literallyzero risk

AMD has been improving margins for several quarters now, it wasn't wholly because of ryzen.


>predicting the future
sure let me get my magic ball here and make sure to invest in netflix, amazon and tesla.
All "new age" companies that hardly make any money , but everyone feels they will change the world so better value them in the tens of billions.

Yeah, they should.
But they're not gonna ramp up in a fucking quarter or two.
Once they hit the green the stock should stop being so crazy due to uncertainty and will steadily continue going up.

Anyway, I invest in what I research, I don't care to research Apple, I research into semiconductors.

Kind of Sup Forums, but I hope you're ready for the drop tomorrow when Comey testifies. The actual content of the testimoney being completely irrelevant, of course.

>literallyzero risk
Meaning incredibly low likelyhood of major profit. AMD, on the other hand, has a competitive product for the first time in ages (low current evaluation) and almost no marketshare (very high potential).

>They should be earning billions.
The semi conductor market just isn't that huge and of course the larger the margins the more competitors you will get driving down.. margins..

>Apple stock is a million times better, will gain more, has good dividend, and literallyzero risk
I dunno senpai, apple is near the top now, where else can it go from here ?
Look at what its been trying to prop up iphone sales - which it is very dependant on as a company.


AMD, on the other hand, has a competitive product for the first time in ages (low current evaluation) and almost no marketshare (very high potential).
I agree with you on the first part, but not entirely on the second part.
Look at the stock price, it already largely reflects AMD's potential. Sure it can go up more, but I doubt its going to the moon like people want to believe.
YoY its up by a huge amount, yet the financials are just not there to support such a high stock price, so investors are already factoring in this 'potential' in their prices for AMD shares i would argue

AMD stock lives in some kind of inverse land, where positive news tanks it while negative news tanks it even more.
And of course random rumors from literal whos on the internet make it soar by 20%

Like what the fuck
Post a profit so these ping pong matches with the stock stop already, AMD

>huge sales increase of Polaris GPUs due to BTC mining
>nothing

Do you seriously think a company that has a competitive processor lineup with Intel and a machine-gun of a roadmap is worth $12 billion?

Not him, but I don't.

Thing is, stock is not dictated by technical and product superiority, it's dictated by jews and profits.
And if they have a competitive product, it needs to sell to make money, that's the job of marketing.

It's shitty, I know, tech stocks should be purely evaluated on their ability to produce good tech.

But it is what it is.

>Look at the stock price, it already largely reflects AMD's potential. Sure it can go up more, but I doubt its going to the moon like people want to believe.
I agree it's not heading to the moon anytime soon, but once EPYC starts to see some real momentum in adoption in early-to-mid 2018 I fully anticipate $20, maybe a hair higher. If Zen 2 is another win it could shoot up even higher, but I don't know enough about the work that goes into designing a processor to make a worthwhile comment on the probability of that.

How is AMD what's keeping x86 alive?
Intel still uses it so much. Also, what would the improvement be?
It'd cause a lot of backwards compatibility issues, so I don't know if the change would be worth it.

depends entirely how much they sell doesn't it ?

Right now AMD posts generally losses on a yearly basis, with an occasionally profit on a quarter here and there.
So is a company that lost a few million dollars every year for the last 4 years worth 12 billion ? I don't think so.

But I am not some AMD hype believer in their potential, i want actual earnings and actual sales to base my stock purchases on, not just feels.

People might personally feel that AMD makes the better products, but if business and consumers don't buy it in the amounts that people hope then the stock will just deflate based on missed *personal* expectations.

the next ER we will see just how much of a boost zen gave, but AMDs guidance for revenue for next quarter is down 18%.
We might have to wait a full year to get good comparable numbers from the previous year, instead of seasonal swings that can affect sales up or down..


Each their own, personally I feel AMD's stock price is still mostly hype around Zen, once the dust settles maybe the stock will settle down in a range I believe to be more suitable for AMD.
But if Zen is a hit, then we can probably count on more hype about Zen 2 further propping up the price to whatever dollar amount.

My rule is "never buy a company you wouldn't want to work for". AMD fails it badly.

AMD is all about liquidity.

They make 3 billion dollars and it all goes back in to R&D, and acquisitions. Their only problem is they didn't have the products to command a huge premium.

That is changed. Now they just need to convince people that buying AMD is no longer a bad choice.

threadripper and epyc will make big bucks. AMD is safe.

I personally like the rule of

"if you could buy the entire company , would you ?"
or maybe with more detail
"would you buy a company that lost 497m dollars last year?"

If they can make a billion next year? Absolutely.

If AMD can net a 10% marketshare from Intel in the PC market, that's a 1 billion in revenue, that would give AMD more net profit than they had since... forever.

AMD is also forecasting over 10% server marketshare in the next 2 years.
All in all, that would put AMD's revenue about somewhere around 2.5 billion with CPUs alone, which is 150% higher than its current revenue.

And those 10% goals are hardly unreasonable I think.

I really should have bought a lot of AMD stocks when they were less than 2 dollars
I knew that they'd go up to ~14 or so

Nvidia is like $140 now.
So one day you'll say...
>I really should have bought a lot of AMD stocks when they were less than 15 dollars
>I knew that they'd go up to ~150 or so

By that time, Nvidia would probably we worth some Apple or Google level of shit, though.

AMD will never get there with posting net losses every quarter in the tens of millions, lmao

>nvidia
>worth more than Intel
>ever

Lmao, GPU market is so much smaller than the CPU market and that's never gonna change.

>I knew that they'd go up to ~14 or so
lol! You mean when they bought ATI for more than their entire net worth, and took on a ridiculous amount of debt?

"oh yeah, they'll definitely go up to 14"

>I-it's a bubble, nobody could have predicted Bitcoin would gain large amounts!
Protip: Bitcoin has been steadily gaining since the day it was created. You should have learned your lesson after it hit $1000 the first time years ago.

somehow I doubt they can make a billion next year.

Plus we don't know what their deal with GF is.

GF might have helped them out when times were lean, but now GF is just an extra middle man taking a cut of their profits.

Just look at their cost of revenue/ Cost of goods sold if you want to focus more on just the manufactering.

Intel's is below 45% while AMD's cost of revenue is ~70% of revenue
Again, i don't know their arrangement with GF, but GF is in to make money too.
And I can't say how cost of revenue/COGS will scale as AMD's revenue climb up, but if that 70% ratio stays that is somewhat troubling.


Adding 1 billion to 2016 revenue puts them pretty firmly back to 2013 revenue numbers - and they still lost money in 2013 as well.


>I knew that they'd go up to ~14 or so
if you *knew* why didn't you buy ?
All these hindsight millionaires fucking chiming in now

thanks captain hindsight, please tell me more about the dozens of alt coins that didn't go anywhere.
instead of looking backwards and saying what we should have bought back then, use a tripcode and tell us what to buy for the next 1,3,5,10 years and we will see if you are right.

>Lmao, GPU market is so much smaller than the CPU market and that's never gonna change.
Nvidia is already worth more than Intel.

Are you fucking retarded, Intel has SEVEN TIMES (x7) larger revenue than Nvidia per quarter.

amd has 0 revenue does that mean it's worth nothing? kys

that user is just an idiot and only looks at stock price
I can see no other explanation

Their revenue isn't how much their worth.
How fucking old are you?

Nvidia's will come much closer to Intel once AMD splits Intel into pieces.
Nvidia is expected to grow still, while Intel isn't.
And even with no competition their growth was rather slow.

They completely restructured their deal with global foundries. They basically bought themselves out of the noose around their neck being forced to use GloFo. They arill have to have a certain amount od silicon fabbed, but it will be at the going market rates with some other changes as well. This was back when the stock was around 10 dollars a share, and because part of the buy out came in AMD shares valued at around 5 a share the market corrected.

Lisa Su is ruthless in pursuing her goals. Sacrificing short term gains for long term stability.

But Golden Jews don't want AMD to be stable, they've already downgraded and bought AMD several times in the span of a few months.

They corrected the inflation of the stock price once when it was tickling 14 dollars. They were right to do so as Ryzen hadn't launched yet and we were just seeing 400 series sales. It stopped people from pumping and dumping their stock which could have been catastrophic for AMDs value and sabotaged any gains. Notice it hasn't dipped below Goldmans evaluation?

Now that AMD are releasing their entire CPU product stack in to Q3 they are going to only increase in value as the stock improves and they report to be in the green by Q3 if sales take off.

Where do you see the stock if Q2 is in the green and there's good Q3 guidance(for all intents and purposes it should)

Where do you see the stock if Q2 is in the red and guidance is 'okay' ?

Scenario 1: 20 dollars over night in after hours trading. And climbing, until cooler heads prevail and a sell off begins dropping it to 12, then bringing it to just under 15 a share and Q3 pushes it above 20

Scenario 2: It will deflate a little back down to 10, then bounce back to 12. And if Q3 is the break even it will hit as high as 14. This one is a little tricky because it depends on just how in the red they are in Q2. If it's still the snails pace growth, then nothing changes and it's deadlocked at 11.

I'm pretty confident in Q2:

-Ryzen 7 only had 20 days of revenue with shortages
-Ryzen 5 launched early in the quarter
-AMD had large inventory cost due to ramping up Ryzen5/7 for launch
-*coins completely sold Polaris and whatever Hawaii cards are left, short term gain should impact Q2 notably.


Q4 is make it break though, full revenue from all Zen, threadripper, epyc, mobile, ryzen 3, Vega gaming and workstation revenue, instinct revenue, with Q1 2018 having Vega 11 and Pro Ryzens.

By Q2 2018 AMD's entire immediate roadmap should be on sale and we should know if it's gonna be part of the big boys.

Really anything in 2017 is hard to predict because AMD is launching a bunch of shit every quarter.

Agreed.

Although I think Q3 is where I draw the line, not Q4.

If they can't make a dent in market share or profitability with in the professional space with Epyc and Thread Ripper it doesn't even matter what comes after.

Bruh, I bought back last year when they were under $2 as a fucking joke. Now I'm laughing my ass off.

If AMD dies then Intel will have a monopoly on x86 processors. They'll be forced to split or waste millions in legal fees trying to defend against the antitrust laws in our country.

> absolutely fucking nothing
Probably segfaulting during compiling on ryzen, assuming napples will be based off same die, target to release in about a month, and amd being silent for issue for nearly week now.
Also, dragonflybsd devs somewhat patched this - gitweb.dragonflybsd.org/dragonfly.git/commitdiff/b48dd28447fc8ef62fbc963accd301557fd9ac20

This can be done on linux via #echo 1 > /proc/sys/kernel/randomize_va_space set, but it still a workaround, not a solution.

Apple is going to buy Intel.