Did i...did i do it?

Did i...did i do it?

use a bagel

nah this is the right way

lol nice one user, well memed

Nice try but you won't be able to solve this one

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yes, switch doors

>Water supplied through the roof
Please never get a job in the utilities.

But if the fire is down how will you put water on it?

If you get upset over not being able to solve it, you have autism. That's the test.

Easy

Take the tied up one person and throw them over a bridge to drown. Now all 6 are dead and no one will ever suspect or know you were even involved.

It doesn't matter I still got 50/50

Fuck that, I dont want to get involved, I've got my own thing going on. Kill the 5

I'll take door number two, and thank you for that extra 33.3%.

the answer is always yes

10/10 bait. This is the real autism test, and I failed.

Never second guess yourself

this is the only correct answer. you didn't set that train in motion so you're not going to be guilty of killing anyone. however, to switch it over means you're choosing to kill one person. the only correct move is not to play the game.

you do swtich doors, but i can't remember the logic behind why. something to do with how now you look at the situation as "now i have a 50/50 chance of getting the right door" when its more like "the host had to open a door with a goat behind it that you didn't choose", so the odds of the door you picked having a goat are higher than the last unpicked door

hard mode

Pleb

water pipiing goes under ground through pipes, electricity goes over head through wires, and fiire/heating will just come straight from the source

Yeah it looks good on paper, but I would never switch because the odds that I have the right door now would be as high as if I were to switch to the other door

Well Sup Forums?

You are like little baby

>but I would never switch because the odds that I have the right door now would be as high as if I were to switch to the other door
Nope wrong.

The wording of the problem forces me to switch to door 2.

it is in the sense that now you have a choice between 2, but since you originaily chose it between 3 options, the odds are actually higher that you picked the goat originally

Tell me how it is wrong
>pick door
>host decides to write off 1 of the other 2
>be left with 2 doors
If you switch you have 50% of picking the right door
However, if you dont switch, you still have 50% to win at the moment

extremely easy because they're expecting some of them left behind in the crash.

You had the switch in front of you and the ability to prevent their deaths. If someone sees you walking away from the switch, you can bet your ass you're getting blamed for the death of those 5 people.

yeah so imagine the car is behind door 1, that scenario only happens 33%of the time. but there is a 66% chance that the other two doors contain the car. When host opens one, you gain more information about the situation, so switching is the logical choice. Mathematicians debated about this for years until a computer simulation proved it.

>touching someone else's switch
fuck that, how am I supposed to know what the switch does?

>switch
but this is an entirely new decision, not one that is relative to your first choice. There is no such thing as "switch" because there is no reference point to determine what you are switching from

The outcome of your first choice is always the same. You do not influence it in any way. When the second choice is explicitly independent ("pick a door" and not "stay or switch"), there is no logical reason to factor in your original decision when calculating the probability

in this situation, it actually is 50/50.
It's the exact same scenario, but a different framing of the question results in a different probability

It's only a logical choice on paper
Fuck this shit

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lol. u already picked one user, and the host cant pick the door u picked. its the same question. nice b8 tho

You can test it.

>the host cant pick the door u picked
This isn't relevant

The outcome of your first decision is ALWAYS one goat door being opened. You have no influence over this outcome.
When your second decision is not relative to the first (ie "pick a door" and not "stay or switch"), the first decision should be disregarded entirely from the probability calculations since your first decision did not contribute to the current situation.

I don't give a shit about numbers
I do what says

>be left with 2 doors
Your initial choice is still 1/3. Switching is the same as getting 2 doors.

easy. switch the tracks, run to the guy and roll him off the tracks.

Basically it's a matter of whether you would blame picking the goat on the math or yourself. As other anons stated, you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct door the first time. The second time, you have a 1 in 2 chance of picking the correct door. Sure, it's 50/50 overall, but in terms of picking each time, it's only 50/50 the second time.

Logically, it always makes sense to switch, but if you're such a beta you'll cry yourself to sleep and your GF will cuck you with Tyrone if you switch and pick the goat, even though it makes logical sense, then yes you should stay.

>switching is the same as getting 2 doors
exactly
so 50/50
If you switch you'd have the same fucking chance of winning as when you don't switch

Try and puzzle this one out

based on the placement of the switch in relation to the tracks, i can hypothesize that since the average train travels at around 35mph, and the average human male is 6'2, the train is about 8 feat away from me and the swithc. I am also roughly around 10 feet from the 1 tied up man, and much too far from the 5 regardless. Also needs noting that the average human sprint speed is 16mph

THOUGH, i am only 10 feet from the 1 man IN A STRAIGHT LINE. Based on the angle of distance between the switch and the train, whilist combining the curvature of the track, it will take much longer for the track for the track to reach the tied up guy.

Thus, the best course of action is to turn the switch, sprint straight to the tied up man, pull from the head and hopefully get him off the track in time. By pulling from the head, i don't decrease the likelyhood that i get him off the track in time, but i do however increase the odds of him surviving the train accident since i can decrease the severity of the injury if he should sustain one

jesus fucking christ, look at this chart you nimwit

Knowing all you cunts, we'd all probably get the goat anyway, switch or not

Weak bait lad.

The problem states that you know what the switch does and anyone who sees a switch directly in front of a train track with 6 tied up people would put it together how it works. Unless you can prove you have a mental disability to everyone else, it's your fault.

if she were smart, she would just eat the fucking candy

>outrunning a train

Okay Superman

Discussing Monty Hall problem should be bannable offense.

what the fuck kind of candy is that big?

And what if I fucking get a goat when I switch? What if I picked the car the first time when it was 1/3, and then switch?
You people say you HAVE to switch because you have a higher chance of getting the car. But some of you ALSO say that the first pick is rendered irrelevant. So basically you have a 1/2 pick now. You can pick either.
Also this

Well then fuck the 5 people. I can just claim I wasn't able to move the switch

we are given no distance of the train to the switch, so i have to assume that i noticed the situation early because im not autistic. see what i did there?

I know this is weak bait but I'll go ahead and debunk it mathematically.

Door 1: 33% goat 1, 33% goat 2, 33% car
Door 2: 33% goat 1, 33% goat 2, 33% car
Door 3: 33% goat 1, 33% goat 2, 33% car

Pick door 1. Your odds are 33% goat 1, 33% goat 2, 33% car

Open door 3. There's goat 2

Stay with Door 1: 50% goat 1, 50% car
Switch to Door 2: 50% goat 1, 50% car

Ergo, 50% chance whether you switch or not, you neither gain nor lose chance of getting the car.

If you deliberately choose not to pick the door that you know has the goat, you effectively remove one door and one goat from the equation. So it becomes 2 doors, 2 outcomes, aka 50% chance. Any reply attempting to debunk this will be embarrassingly blatant bait.

dont feel bad user, way smarter people than you have debated this for years. however, if you get the goat, well, that STATISTICS BABY. dont whine about it. you act as if there's an answer to a statistical question that will DEFINITELY get you what you want. Now this is real autism

Annie is gone. Am I really supposed to believe she left the candy in the box and didn't take it with her?

kek

You have three doors.

The car can be behind any door.

If the car is behind Door A, you'll have 3 options, if the car is behind Door B you'll have 3 options, and if the car is behind Door C you'll have 3 options.

6 of those possible outcomes means you picked a goat.
3 a car.

If you picked a door with a goat behind it, and the showhost has to open a door, he can only ever open 1 door, since he can't reveal the car.
Meaning if you switch in those 6 possible realities you get the car.

there was literally no math in this response.

however, can we all just agree that the answer fools lots of people? and why are you arguing against what a computer can prove? do you need a hug?

I mean either way im gaining something so unless i paid more than the cost of an average goat to play, I still win. The cost to insure and keep an additional car could far outweigh the benefits of a goat. Free goat milk and cheese.

Yes, if you decide to switch, picking a goat on the first round guarantees a win in the second round, so you have a 2/3 chance of winning. This whole problem is just the host asking you if you want to change the winning item from being the car to being the goats, but it still confuses people.

It's actually the memers who say ''always switch'' who act as if there's an answer to this

WRONG

This entire thread was an autism test and we all lost. CONGRATS!

Giving the wrong answer should give you a three day ban desu.

Not permanent since to be fair it fools a lot of people initially.

haha, joke's on you. i am OP

there are 3 doors, you have a 33% chance of getting the door, 66% chance getting a goat. The host has to pick a door with a goat remaining, eliminating a door from contention.

Then, you are given the choice to switch your choice.

YOU SWITCH. Why? because when you picked you're first door, you had a 33% chance of being right. Now, you have a 50% chance. The host had a 100% chance of picking a door with a goat.

It is more likely the door you picked doesn't have the car but the goat, because the host couldn't reveal your door, but could only reveal another door that had a goat

d1 d2 d3
c g g
g c g
g g c

all possible 3 permutations of the cars/goats with respective door

if we always pick door 1, we have a 1/3 chance of correct guess based on original guess
HOWEVER, the host reveals a goat to us.

what this means is, in 2/3 of the cases if a goat is revealed to us, if we switch our choice we get the car.

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You're confused, a computer never solved it, a computer merely simulated the scenario. The entire basis of this is the notion that the value of the other door increases when you know what is behind the third door, what it fails to acknowledge is that the value of the door you chose equally and proportionately increases. The "experts" who claim otherwise are literally just High Level Memers.

the real autism test is being in and posting in this thread on a Kazakhstani kite flying forum

I dont think you have a grasp on how much work keeping a goat actually is

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quads confirm

You can't enter pic related with a car.

What if I switch to the door the Host opened? 100% chance for the goat. Check and Mate Gameshow

You really are autistic

I guess you win