Trade war feared as EU and China to retaliate on US steel

"We will not sit idly while our industry is hit with unfair measures that put thousands of European jobs at risk," European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker said on Thursday.

He said the EU would "react firmly" in "the next few days" with "countermeasures" that were compatible with World Trade Organisation rules.

He also indicated that US president Donald Trump's "blatant … protectionism" risked doing wider harm to transatlantic relations. "The EU has been a close security ally of the US for decades," Juncker noted, after Trump ignored proposals by his own trade chief to exclude "friendly states" from the metals decision.

Germany is the EU's biggest steel exporter to the US and shipped 1.4 million tonnes there last year. That figure is small compared to Canada and Brazil, which shipped around 5 million tonnes each to the US.

But VW Stahl, the German steel lobby, said Trump's move threatened to flood the EU market with foreign steel when those countries diverted exports from the US.

With Canada, Brazil, and other steel exporters, such as China, also threatening retaliatory measures, Kerkhoff added that the risk of a broader trade war risked seeing EU exporters shut out of other markets as well. He spoke after Canadian foreign minister Chrystia Freeland said "Canada will take responsive measures to defend its trade interests and workers".

The Chinese reaction is expected to target US exports of soy beans as well as metals, highlighting the risk of a wider protectionist backlash around the world.

The Trump tariffs raise "risks of an all-out trade war, which could dampen economic growth," the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group said in a note.

Other urls found in this thread:

businessroundtable.org/sites/default/files/BRT_TRADE_2015_US.pdf
visualcapitalist.com/reliant-u-s-state-foreign-trade/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act#Economic_effects
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States
ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
businessinsider.com/how-much-products-would-cost-if-made-in-us-2016-11?international=true&r=US&IR=T
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

This is why protectionism, at least through the use of arbitrarily high import tariffs, generally isn't a good thing. Expecting to shut your borders to foreign export without expecting foreigners to do the same is just as childish as the Germans bombing London to oblivion without expecting equal or greater retaliation. In the end it will come to bite the Americans in the ass, as they now find themselves paying much more for European and Chinese imports, which in turn has detrimental effects on the US economy. Even a hypothetical autarky wouldn't really help as in this scenario there'd be no competition for US products meaning they eventually fall behind the rest of the world in quality and efficiency. In other words, no matter how good you play the game of protectionism in the end you pay more for lesser products.

The US barely relies on trade economically. We are the biggest consumer market on the planet and have almost all resources on the planet. Threatening the US with trade is like a girl threatening CHAD without sex. It is just something to laugh about

Only 14% of the US GDP relies on foreign trade and every year that number is smaller. On the other hand countries like China or the whole Europe would collapse if the US decided to shut its markets

europenises btfo

american steel is coming backkk

Am I the only one whose first thought was of Naboo, and the Trade viceroy?

nigga you stupid as heck

>Data hurts my head
>Grug don't understand!
Literally Walmart is the forth largest trading partner of China. The US doesn't need trade and in fact our fleet is so strong that if we decide to stop free trade on the planet it would collapse

...

>Only 14% of the US GDP relies on foreign trade
14% is a lot to put in jeapardy, mate. Look at it differently.
businessroundtable.org/sites/default/files/BRT_TRADE_2015_US.pdf
See how many jobs in the US are dependent on foreign trade, both import and export. Those are jobs Trump is risking with this move. More interestingly...
visualcapitalist.com/reliant-u-s-state-foreign-trade/
Many of the states that won Trump the election, the states in the so-called Rust Belt, are disproportionately dependent on foreign trade. Michigan topping the chart with 38% dependency. Trump's odds of being re-elected depend entirely on how well the Rust Belt will do.

Of course I'm not saying foreign trade will collapse, there will always be NAFTA, but starting a trade war with both the EU and China isn't in America's best interests.

>The US barely relies on trade economically.
>We are the biggest consumer market on the planet
Pick one. Transitioning into an autarky will take time, effort and generally doesn't bode well for the consumer like I explained earlier.

> countries like China or the whole Europe would collapse if the US decided to shut its markets
>this much delusion

fucking hell I knew ameritards were stupid but this is just scary

>elects a charismatic strong man with a strong and loud base supporting him
>constantly talking about popular things
>revs up on protectionism
He only needs to start controlling mass media broadcast and fully nationalize a bunch of institutions to guarantee the government has full control of everything that's going on with the excuse of "we can't let something as important as our economy/society end up in hands of foreign interests" and you'll have the political scenario of 1940s Argentina, with the ensuing 80 years of decadence.
I for one, welcome our new Chinese overlords.

The US is almost half of the consumer market on the planet. If Trump decided to tax the shit out of foreign goods a huge industry would pop up to cover up for it. That's how America has always operated before we decided to guarantee free trade with us as an strategy to defeat the soviets.
Most of our trade is just done with our neighbors and outsourcing,trade with our own companies, really the world has little to offer the US and soon we will be totally independent energy wise and we have with France and Ireland the only viable demographics of the developed world and China

Europe is enormously dependent on trade.

>countries like China or the whole Europe would collapse if the US decided to shut its markets
>>this much delusion
A financial crisis in the US almost collapsed the world's economy. 70% of China's growth is relative to how much they are able to export to the US. The US is almost half of the world's consumer market. Selling your product in the US is almost as valueable than selling it everywhere else on the planet combined. The last 80 years of unrestricted free trade is an illusion that has been granted to the world by the US and it's fleet.

>The US is almost half of the consumer market on the planet.
Do you not understand that this means the US consumes about as much as the other half of the planet? And does not produce everything it consumes? Creating dependence on foreign imports? Which are now being threatened due retaliation to Trump's steel protectionism?

>If Trump decided to tax the shit out of foreign goods a huge industry would pop up to cover up for it.
If that's the case, why hasn't he done that yet? He's literally wasting money by not doing it according to you.

>That's how America has always operated
No, you fucking idiot. In fact, this attitude was why the Great Depression hit America more than most European countries.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act#Economic_effects
The US enacted tariffs to protect itself from European agricultural imports, and as such only made the Depression worse. There's no real consensus on how it made things worse but (American) economists overwhelmingly accept THAT it made things worse. Also check the retaliations, and how Canada started trading more with Britain rather than its previously no. 1 trade partner America.

>Most of our trade is just done with our neighbors
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States
Except both the EU (as a whole) and China are bigger trade partners to the US than the runner up Canada, you fucking mongrel.

Yes but to imply that the USA shutting down trade would hurt the rest of the world more than it would hurt itself is just delusion.

>And does not produce everything it consumes?
It used to until China started practicing ilegal trade policies to ilprove throughput
>Creating dependence on foreign imports?
The dependence would be temporal. The US consumer market is so big that it's own industries will pop up again in a very small amount of time.
>If that's the case, why hasn't he done that yet? He's literally wasting money by not doing it according to you.
Because his cronnies can make a bigger profit if they outsource production to Mexico
>No, you fucking idiot
You are totally clueless. Outside of Coolidge and post WWII the US has had the highest tariffs on the planet
>Except both the EU (as a whole) and China are bigger trade partners to the US than the runner up Canada, you fucking mongrel.
The EU is not a country and alredy included China in my post which is basically trade with our own companies

Half of the caloric intake of the middle east is imported. That's why the Saudis have been mass producing oil,socthe US is not incentivice to pursue shale and energetic independance,as most of their foreign currency to buy imports rely solely on selling us oil.
China trades more with Walmart than woth India and the middle east combine
Most European manufacturing ends up in the US when it doesn't go outside of Europe.
The US clearly imports more than it exports mainly due outsourcing. We could shut all trade withput NAFTCA and do well while the China,the middle east,Japan,SEA and the EU collapse

>It used to until China started practicing ilegal trade policies to ilprove throughput
What are you even saying? That illegal trade practices in China caused America's negative trade balance?
>The US consumer market is so big that it's own industries will pop up again in a very small amount of time
This does not happen overnight and the US economy will suffer for it. But let's assume for the sake of argument that it DOES happen overnight, don't you wonder why the US imports so much in the first place?
ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
Look at what the US imports from China. Notice that it's all cheap, mass produced shit that will become highly expensive if produced domestically due to various labor laws. It will harm the consumer directly, but also indirectly (machinery gets more expensive, which harms various large factories, which in turn makes their products more expensive to the US consumer). The thing about trade vs domestic production isn't so much IF you can do it, pretty much every country can produce pretty much everything. The question is whether it's cheaper to buy than to produce, or whether products of another country are of higher quality. Free trade encourages specialization.
>Because his cronnies can make a bigger profit if they outsource production to Mexico
Did you live under Dwayne Johnson the past few years? Trump's entire platform is sending less jobs to Mexico.
>Outside of Coolidge and post WWII the US has had the highest tariffs on the planet
The high point of US tariffs was 1870-1914. Almost as if the US benefited from getting involved in European affairs and opening up its markets, as underlined by protectionism making the Great Depression worse.
>The EU is not a country
But it is a trade block. Scroll up to the OP's post and realize Juncker isn't a head of state/government.
>China/Walmart
Again, net importer. Walmart will suffer if it loses access to cheap Chinese goods.

>just got out of a rescission
>ameriblobs elect a senile retard
>get dragged back in
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH CANT NORTH KOREA FUCKING BLOW UP THAT SHITHOLE ALREADY

I dont give a fuck about the middle East.

My argument was if you were to become totally isolationist you would surely suffer more than China. The Chinese make almost everything internally. You would be self sufficient when it comes to basic necessities (like agriculture and water) but NOTHING else. The price of automobiles, Alcohol, industrial equipment, petroluem, cell phones, computers would go up 2000%+

America always do trade deals unfairly even before in the past.
They singlehandly destroyed our sugar industry before by hindering us from trading to other countries.

Americans traditionally were anti-protectionism because they profited, from net trade surplus. This is still the case, it's just that American workers are getting shafted by being primarily employed in industries that are the "losers" while American elite are reaping the benefits.

What the US needs is some compensation from the elite to the workers, so that they can maintain their net beneficially economic position, while also keeping the American worker happy. Instead they are too greedy so they are fighting themselves and ruining the country in the process.

Dog Bless.

>The Chinese make almost everything internally
Except they don't. They import huge amounts of raw resources on shipping lanes that the US protects and import large amounts of agricultural products from the US. You shouldn't idealize China as some sort of self-sufficient industrial paradise.

But in any case, the economic arguments in this thread are irrelevant. The US is pulling back from the world in anticipation of the next clusterfuck that's going to engulf Eurasia. Trade policy is just a pretense for this.

Tbh, I would like to see what a trade war between EU and US would result in.

There are lots of markets in which the EU decided we should be the "losers" and let the US dominate. Would be a huge boom in those markets with some protectionism.

Not saying the Jordani is right but
>on shipping lanes that the US protects
The fuck does that have to do with anything? Are you implying that privateering is a viable option or something?

>americans drag us into a 20 year war in the middle east
>americans crash the economy in 2008
>americans are thirsty for war with north korea
>americans will again crash the economy in the next few years

guys, I'm beginning to think that america might actually be the bad guys here

>the next clusterfuck that's going to engulf Eurasia

Care to elaborate? Are you hinting at war?

It's a shame there is no Euro silicon valley tbx.

>inb4 muh berlin startup scene

A job in manufacturing can sustain 4 jobs in the service industry. It also raises the investment in research and development which is the core of our economy. Securing jobs in manufacturing is more important than niggers being able to afford 12 microwaves a month

Also hate to burst your bubble (again) but China ranks first in worldwide farm output, primarily producing rice, wheat, potatoes, tomato, sorghum, peanuts, tea, millet, barley, cotton, oilseed and soybeans. It employs more than 300 million people, maybe they'll stop getting their cornflakes in the morning but Im pretty sure they can manage on their own

Yes. Why do you think the US spends 600 billion dollars per year on its military? Hell, the combined forces of NATO still have trouble tackling piracy from time to time. In the pre-WW2 world, large empires were necessary because state-sponsored piracy was the norm. It's not outlandish to imagine a scenario where China and Japan would seize each other's oil tankers, for example.

Probably. It's been a long time since one of those happened in the old world, and attempts to maintain a balance of power have kind of fallen through. So the US is doing what it historically does - pull back and regroup on the other side of the planet.

They produce a ton but it's not even remotely sufficient to feed their current population.

Yeah that is exactly what I was thinking. The Chinese got theirs pretty easily with some protectionism.

The US and EU should honestly be working together to boycott Chinese steel. They’ve been flooding the market with their cheap flimsy shit to drive down the global price of good steel to make building their rapidly expanding infrastructure cheaper.

The whole world should tariffing steel imports from China.

>trade wars are good, and easy to win.
I guess there goes any chance I ever had of getting that engineering job.

American manufactures ard almost as cheap as Chinese ones despite the former recieving massive subsidies,having an utterly devaluated meme currency and having literal slave labour. I can't wait for the US to fuck those dishonest pricks for good

>A job in manufacturing can sustain 4 jobs in the service industry
What you fail to understand is that many companies and consumers pick foreign products over domestic products because they're either cheaper or higher quality. For example:
businessinsider.com/how-much-products-would-cost-if-made-in-us-2016-11?international=true&r=US&IR=T
Are you willing to pay up to three times as much as usual for a single pair of jeans, if not more if we're talking about cheaper non-designer brands? Let's say the answer is yes. This means that more money spent on jeans means less money spent on other things (opportunity cost) which in turn lowers purchasing power and generally means a bad thing for all consumption-dependent sectors of the economy.

Your entire argument operates under the delusion that only the seller benefits from the trade while the buyer is being Jewed out of his money.

>Why do you think the US spends 600 billion dollars per year on its military?
I doubt it is to start a petty war with a nuclear power over something as trivial as trade tariffs.

The US uses its navy to secure global trade. It's literally in the USN's mission statement. The reason it did this was to build up an alliance built on globalized free trade to fight the Soviets.

In the current era, globalized free trade is a security concern for the US and so the US is abandoning the policy.

>The US uses its navy to secure global trade. It's literally in the USN's mission statement.
And how does that make it likely that the USN will respond to tariffs with warfare against a nuclear power? Are you stupid, or are you under the assumption that real life politics is a fucking game?

>It's been a long time since one of those happened in the old world

Yes but for good reason. The world learned much from 2 world wars and they are still fresh in memory. No one wants to go through that again so I dont foresee another one of those for at least 100 years

At the rate things are going I would wager there will be a major war over something in asia within the next 10 years.

The USN isn't going to war, at least not right away. That's the point. Instead it's going to be redeployed to protect critical US commerce and nothing else.

No one wants to go through wars ever. Wars happen because of geopolitical necessity.

Trade wars are never positive for your own economy, however they do have a use as a geopolitical tool for hurting another country’s economy even worse than yours if done right.

You should never use protectionism as an economic strategy, only a diplomatic weapon.

I'm assuming comrade Putin gave him that order, knowing it will only fuck up our economy in the long run.

>Instead it's going to be redeployed to protect critical US commerce and nothing else.
Which relates to China's retalation to US protectionism how exactly?

>what are nukes?
>what is unquestionable USA military superiority that can literally take on the entire world on its own

besides everyone and their neighbor is in an alliance now so there can never really be an isolated war.

If you guys are right and there happens to be a war soon then we are well and truly fucked.

What I don't get is why he is targeting Canada when we have an equal trade balance and are a net importer of US steel.

>Of course I'm not saying foreign trade will collapse, there will always be NAFTA
Not for much longer. He's trying to fuck over NAFTA just because he can.

>He's trying to fuck over NAFTA just because he can
Sauce?

To everyone arguing with Americans about anything, you should know that it is fucking impossible and an absolute waste of your time. They don't care about logic, reason or facts, and for every single burger you manage to shut down, there are literally 300 million more who will parrot the exact same thing until you get exhausted at their stupidity. Just a warning.

Americans are right on this one. Chance for them to rebuild their steel industry.

>The world learned much from 2 world wars

Yeah the world learned the power of nuclear weapons. Without the nukes it might as well be 1939. For countries who don't have nukes and aren't protected by countries who do it is 1939, somebody can just march in and start tearing everything up.

>What the US needs is some compensation from the elite to the workers
b-but thats communism

Chance for them to completely destroy their last remains of their manufacturing base that depends on foreign steel imports

LOOK AT THAT DUDE
OH NO NO NO AHAHAAHAHAH

a war between whom?
China and EU seem to get along pretty well, and the only conflict EU has with Russia is due to USA

At the expense of everything, including their own trade industry. Lack of competition will in the long run result in more expensive steel of lower quality.

Honestly, they'd be better off just giving subsidies to their own steel industry or something. Still a shit measure that backfires in the long run, but at least it doesn't piss off the US' two major trade partners.

>What I don't get is why he is targeting Canada

Trump has released next to no details about this steel tariff idea and whether some countries would be exempt or not. Canada may very well be not included, as NAFTA actually gives them legal protections against the US attempting to tariff steel imports from them.

People are freaking out way too early, this isn’t the first time Trump has floated around a vague idea to scare everyone, but once the actual legislation is made, it’s not nearly as crazy as he initially made it out to be.

Surprising that a businessman like Trump doesn't realize that both sides benefit from a trade deal, not just the selling side. The buyer isn't just giving money away, he's giving money away with the understanding that he will get something he values more than the money he paid (assuming the freedom to act from both sides).

I'm just getting really pissed off at him ranting about china and mexico, and then all the measures he actually implements (softwood, the plane tariffs, dairy, etc.) are all against Canada.

Granted, it won't be easy in the beginning but Americans produced good quality steel in the past. They can do it again

The ongoing cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could go hot any moment, and China is by geopolitical necessity, opposed by pretty much all of the advanced nations on its periphery (Japan, Taiwan, and Korea). And that's not even getting into general Russian brinksmanship in eastern Europe.

No clue who's going to go to war, but there's any number of flashpoints that could erupt.

Was he ever a good businessman? Afaik, he was born rich and failed in most of his business

you are ignoring that America is the cause for the tensions in many cases.
The only problem Russia has with Eastern Europe are the American military bases that are stationed there
Without American support, countries like Japan or Korea would accept the necessity and bow to China
Same is true for Saudi Arabia, they can't take Iran without American support

>countermeasures
Like what, for example? I'm not too knowledgeable about economics and trade.

He lost 1 billion dollars in a single year, he unironically got saved by loans made by Russian oligarchs.

A dutch who cares about workers? Have Mutts really no shame?

I agree with you there. I have no idea why Trump keeps wanting to agitate Canada and it pisses me off too.

I’m with him on some respects about getting tougher on the EU and China, but our allies in North America and Asia have been nothing but accommodating in working with us.

Yeah, he's a pretty big deal when it comes to real estate.
>failed in most of his business
Show me a man who never failed in his business enterprises and I'll show you a guy who either never started a business, or only started one and got really rich. Trump has had both successes and failures in branching out, from his succesful tv production company to the joke that was the Trump steak.

>Like what, for example?
Their own trade tariffs on America. It's foolish to force others to pay extra to operate on your market and not expect them to do the same. Considering we're dealing with both China and the EU at the same time, it means it'll most likely drive the two closer together to America's detriment. They will both suffer, but probably less than America if it results in a newfound cooperation. Perhaps it will result in this new "Silk Road" Macron dreams of.

Last time we imposed tariffs on industries in swing states like Ohio and Florida. We might also target the electoral districts of prominent republicans

I've heard people here talking about getting closer with china. Even some fairly well connected politicians I know as family friends.

People here are confused and starting to look for other allies in business, and probably soon in other things. It honestly scares me the way things are going. Go after china, go after some of the other players, but we've been your closest allies since the 1800s and half the provinces still have open offers to join the states. It just makes no sense.

I hate the whole russia conspiracy but it does make me wonder.

Americans had warned Europe about the trade imbalances with them. This isn't something out of the blue. They are determined to reduce the revenue of european industry and corporations.

The problem with that stategy is that the Republican party is in disarray and it doesn't seem to affect Trump. This isn't the electoral politics of 2004 - you're not going to be able to shrug off tariffs just by targeting Republicans.

Protectionism has taken root in both parties so even if you manage to unseat Republicans, it's likely they'll be replaced by Democrats who are just as anti-trade as Trump is.

>The US barely relies on trade economically.
wew

Better late than never, I guess

Jesus Christ

he is only a bigmouth, bigfeet manchild persona

no substance at all

I don’t think it’s a Russian conspiracy thing, I just think Trump is bullying targets that he believes he can more easily bully because it makes him feel like a big man or something, but it’s pathetic.

Trump is almost certainly gonna be a 1 term president, so just gotta try and weather the storm. His approval ratings are atrocious.

>They import huge amounts of raw resources
In terms of raw minerals and ores, that has drastically lowered since the construction boom ended. It was one of the reasons why Australia started to aggressively switch a service economy, because China no longer needed our ore like they did for so long before.

Well, my big fear is he'll kill NAFTA or something which would torpedo the Canadian economy and take like 10 years to replace.

At this point, no fucks given. If he wants a scorched earth policy to bully us we should just sign a free trade deal with china. We already got one with the EU.

Becoming dependent on the US for trade has made us too narrow minded.

>Lack of competition will in the long run result in more expensive steel of lower quality.
More expensive, yes
Lower quality, not necessarily.

China would just rape us in a compromised position, it's better to wait it out than give a single inch to them.

My Landlord is a wannabe Trump

about 1,70m manlet, drives Porsche, wears Shoes that make him look taller, practises boxing

bought the house for a too high price without having a look at it, sending in letters with unlawful requests

we denied anything he wanted, no more letters in the follow-up

we can't let the bullies win, srsly

>dairy
You can't keep your bagged homo, homo.

Doubt it. We have the exact same leverage as we had before nafta renegotiations. China wants our money as much as we want theirs. Even a bad deal with china is better then a okay deal with the USA. Dependency on a single trading partner has made us fat and sloppy.

Just join us, within the EU Canada gets a voice in shared democratic institutions, a seat on the table, a vote and veto instead of being bullied around.

>Lower quality, not necessarily
What do you think drives innovation and quality improvement, if not competition? The less competition,the less drive to improve.

Also borderless access to millions of unvetted refugees and a land border with africa.

I'll pass.

I would take the entire continent of china moving here before 5 million black africans.

He has pretty much 0 support in the rest of the government for dismantling NAFTA, even his own party would go hard against him on that. I think that’s something that would legitimately get him impeached if he tried to kill it, it’s way too important to US long term geopolitics and a matter of national security to keep Canada and Mexico always tight in the fold with us.

I think it’s one of those things he’ll not actually do like building a wall, just talk about it occasionally and pretend like he’s working on it.

Canada would never accept the single currency. It relies too much on its banking industry to put up with ECB shennanigans or angry krauts demanding bail-ins when banks go under.

Also this

Wouldn’t mind joining the eu. But I don’t think that’s in the cards for at least 50-100 years.

>The only problem Russia has with Eastern Europe are the American military bases that are stationed there
They are there at the desire of said Eastern European nations as is their right as sovereign nations. Russia until it couldn't afford it had a Cuba base. So their logic is a bit off if the bases are their only problem.
>Without American support, counties like Japan or Korea would accept the necessity and bow to China
Oh yeah that's great. I'm sure they'd love that.

>Same is true for Saudi Arabia, they can't take Iran without American support
S.A. has better equipment than Iran. It would be a messy war and probably long.

>Was he ever a good businessman? Afaik, he was born rich and failed in most of his business
His wealth increase is greater than he'd make from investing so he's not bad. Also, bankruptcy here is a common business tactic. It's a dick move but a lot of successful businesses and people have pulled it.

Irak had better Equipment than Iran and they made it like 20km into Iran

>a man who only started one and got really rich
That's the definition of a truly successful man.
A man that starts several business (and is only able to start several businesses because he's rich to begin with) is bound to luck out on some of them eventually.
Ie Bill Gates is superior in every way to Trump.

>The US barely relies on trade economically
We are one of the (possibly biggest but I'd have to check) exporters of food. We also export raw materials and weapons. If you go to Europe you'll see Ford cars. We export a lot.

As a member of the the biggest trading block in the world, Canada would benefit from its economical leverage in negociates. The EU does a pretty good job at using its weight.

I dunno, from what I heard about the PIIGS, we could still just as easily be bullied by you.